The United States (U.S.) is facing a daunting surge in climate-induced internal migration. In 2023, the New York Times reported the country’s record number of high-cost disasters, foreshadowing not only financial losses but significant demographic shifts. Growingly concerned, experts have predicted that by 2100, around 13.1 million coastal residents will be displaced solely by sea level rise. As major changes in population distribution and livelihood are anticipated nationwide, certain groups are bound to face more aggravating repercussions, to the extent of losing their residences. 

Climate migration is defined as the relocation from climate-volatile regions to more temperate ones, which may frequently conjure the image of third-world island nations in Oceania. However, the complexity of the U.S.’s situation stands in the polarized political landscape and citizens’ varying beliefs about climate change impacts. Yet, the alarming condition of climate-induced migration demands continuous reassessment and swift response that transcend political divides. In such settings, understanding different types of vulnerability and addressing the needs of different groups becomes the ultimate imperative.

Catastrophic Climate – Biggest Roots of Displacement Movements

2023 marked a historic year in terms of losses due to weather and climate crises in the U.S. There were 28 weather disasters, exceeding the previous record of 22 in 2020, resulting in financial damages of over 92.9 billion United States Dollars (USD). Human fatalities also reached the highest in the contiguous U.S. since 1980. It has been estimated by ProPublica that nearly one in two Americans will most likely experience a decline in the quality of their environment, as induced by climate change. Yet, another huge hurdle is awaiting millions of Americans – named “the biggest human crisis you’ve ever heard of” by climate expert Gaia Vince – the risks of climate migration.

In neighborhoods undergoing considerable population shifts, accompanying issues emerge and influence critical areas of social welfare, encompassing real estate market stability, demographic composition, and most importantly, the residents’ lives. Insurance companies are increasingly denying coverage in vulnerable California regions, deeming them “uninsurable” due to escalating climate change risks. Yale School of the Environment also noted the extensive impacts in Alaskan coastal towns: As sea ice recedes, these areas are more exposed to storms; rising temperatures will thaw the ground, endangering fundamental structures that bear the livelihoods of many.

The U.S.’s Internal Migration Matrix

In overview, Midwestern states such as Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio are receiving a large influx of incoming residents. Yet, migration patterns vary based on people’s needs and resources. Many relocate to regions highly exposed to climate threats. Florida, for instance, has observed a paradoxical rise in population and thus real estate prices despite its flooding vulnerability. Some individuals prioritize proximity and opt for short-distance moves within their original areas, staying connected to their communities. Others follow erratic or even circular paths; many people move multiple times or leave and return to certain places. This last group, which typically lacks both financial means and sufficient assistance to obtain appropriate housing in unpredictable conditions, encounters formidable obstacles in relocation.

The flooding-prone condition of Miami exemplifies these challenges. Soaring housing costs in elevated, less susceptible to flood risk regions, can trigger climate gentrification, as existing residents of lower-income and minority groups struggle to secure their places. According to Scientific American, rising sea levels can displace more than half of Miami’s households. In actuality, based on CNN’s analysis of U.S. Census demographic data, the highest-ground areas underwent a shift from around 58 percent white and 35 percent black residents in 2000 to 69 percent white and 21 percent black residents by 2019. Both the immediate impacts and enduring aftermaths of climate disasters are causing millions to lose their homes.

Addressing the Red Zone

In discussing the U.S.’s approach to climate migration with The Granite Tower (GT), Professor Aaron Clark-Ginsberg (Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School) acknowledges efforts from associations like The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to aid the affected individuals. Nevertheless, climate migration is often overlooked in state and local emergency plans, posing challenges to providing timely assistance. While various frameworks have been introduced to better understand the vulnerability spectrum concerning climate-disaster-induced relocation, they are not adequately incorporated into current policies. The lack of clarity regarding “who is and is not a climate-related migrant” hinders the formulation of targeted support.

In achieving effective disaster management, Professor Clark-Ginsberg emphasizes the fundamental role of local households and communities. However, most policies pay only “lip service” to community-driven approaches, at best providing minimal public consultations that lead to insignificant decisions. “It is typically the poorest and most vulnerable who are most affected by disaster, as they often lack access to the material and human resources,” Clark-Ginsberg states, arguing that these groups often have the least voice and ability to shape decisions, and thus do not benefit from the following results. “The United States can learn from other places, especially low and middle-income country contexts that are often more advanced in community-driven disaster management,” says Clark-Ginsberg.

Climate migrants encounter hardships extending beyond the basics of housing and livelihoods. Potential traumas such as loss of place, loved ones, and community often follow relocation. Despite this, humane approaches remain prevalently absent in “the hustle and bustle of disaster response and recovery.” Professor Clark-Ginsberg shares with GT, “Instead of a-priori viewing migration as a threat to be prevented or a positive to be incentivized, migration should be considered based on the goals and desires of households.”

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2022, 3.2 million U.S. adults were displaced or evacuated due to natural disasters. Of these, more than 500,000 had not returned by the beginning of 2023. This highlights the long-term nature of climate migration and related phenomena in the U.S. Despite being considered a high-income country with the capacity to support its citizens, the U.S. is facing urgent needs to allocate resources and address pressing here be dragons issues to prevent the exacerbation of problems that could threaten basic human rights.