As climate change continues to reach record levels, the number of displaced people is simultaneously on the rise. In a report released by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), close to 1.2 billion people could become climate refugees by 2050. Among those vulnerable to this phenomenon, the small island of Tuvalu stands out. If global warming and rising sea levels remain unchecked, the country will soon become entirely submerged and thus inhabitable, leaving its population with no option but to migrate elsewhere.

“We are sinking,” proclaimed Simon Kofe, Minister for Justice, Communications, and Foreign Affairs of Tuvalu, standing kneedeep in seawater as he delivered his speech for the 2021 United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference (COP26). A small country in the Pacific Ocean, Tuvalu stands as an undeniable example of the disproportionate effects of climate change. As reported by Our World in Data, the nation contributes less than 0.01 percent of total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and experts predict that half of its land will be flooded by 2050, and that number will increase to 95 percent by 2100. To prepare for such a scenario, Tuvalu has introduced its Future Now Project, featuring the creation of a digital twin in the metaverse that would ensure the continuation of the state, even after its potential submergence.

A Climate Disaster

Due to its unique geographical location, Tuvalu is exceptionally vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and rising sea levels. Situated as a collection of low-lying coral atolls and reef islands, most of the country’s landmass hovers only a few meters above sea level. This low elevation renders the islands highly susceptible to even marginal increases in sea levels. Additionally, its relatively limited land area makes it difficult for the population to relocate to higher grounds and avoid flooded areas. This particular situation has already had profound effects on the island’s physical environment and the well-being of its citizens.

For starters, coral islands have been experiencing accelerated coastal erosion and beach loss, jeopardizing both natural habitats and human habitation. The encroaching sea has further impacted the country’s freshwater supply and left Tuvaluans to rely on rainwater, thus exacerbating water scarcity and threatening agriculture. Similarly, traditional fishing patterns have been disrupted by the rising sea, affecting food security and the livelihoods of those heavily reliant on marine resources. Yet the dangers are not merely economical; the identity and cohesion of Tuvalu’s citizens as a people are being threatened by the possibility of becoming scattered around the world, cut off from their ancestral lands and communities.

Last Resort: The Metaverse

To ease the consequences, Tuvalu is concentrating efforts on building resilience against climate change and preserving the country for as long as possible. To that end, the Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project is currently creating over seven hectares of land which will be high enough to stay above rising sea levels. Additional infrastructure developments are also being made to guarantee a safe and continuous supply of water and food. However, while the goal is to ensure survival in its physical land, Tuvalu also acknowledges the worst-case scenario where the country is fully underwater. In its determination to secure its future, Tuvalu has embarked on a groundbreaking initiative entailing a full digital transition.

The Digital Nation Project is a comprehensive measure that seeks to digitize various aspects of Tuvaluan life. Following the footsteps of countries such as South Korea, Barbados, or Estonia, who have all begun to provide government services through online means, Tuvalu’s first step is to make all public systems digitally accessible. From there, the nation hopes to expand the scope of the project to build online versions of its entire territory, and even of its culture by keeping digital records of traditional songs, recipes, and historical documents. To further preserve cultural identity and cohesion, Kofe has mentioned the idea of including an interactive virtual reality that would allow the diaspora of Tuvaluans to talk and connect with one another.

The Obstacles Ahead

Despite these ambitious plans, Tuvalu faces several challenges in implementing its Digital Nation Project. The biggest obstacle is found in the fact that a digital nation is completely uncharted territory, not regulated by any international legal bodies. During an interview with Professor Chung Suh-Yong (Division of International Studies), he specified that under current international law, the only legal responsibility from industrialized nations towards countries like Tuvalu in fighting climate change comes from the principle of common but differentiated responsibility, and historical responsibility. Nonetheless, this duty does not extend as far as recognizing Tuvalu’s digital nation as a formally sovereign state with ownership over its land and sea.

Following the Montevideo Convention, for a state to be recognized, it requires a government, a territory, and a permanent population living in it. While the island nation’s digital twin may be able to check off the first condition, there are no legal provisions that allow for a digital world to be considered a territory. At most, the digitally-based government of Tuvalu may be able to provide “registration numbers” for its people, but the problem remains of whether other countries will be willing to recognize this new form of citizenship. As per Professor Chung’s opinion, contemporary international law remains “too strict” for Tuvalu to retain its sovereignty by means of technology alone, and it is more likely that there will be a transitional period after which the state of Tuvalu will be officially declared as having disappeared.

At the forefront of the climate crisis, Tuvalu faces the grave challenges of rising sea levels and coastal erosion that threaten its very existence. It also stands at the leading edge of bold steps to fight this off and embrace digital technologies. A digital twin offers hope for mitigating the impacts of a rising sea, preserving cultural identity, and fostering resilience. However, such visionary aspirations may ultimately be futile if international frameworks are not adjusted to accommodate Tuvalu’s special situation. Until then, the country’s best chance at survival is to focus on land adaptation to make sure it stays above the sea.