On October 22, the opposition parties of Venezuela held their first primary elections since 2012 to elect the candidate that will face current president Nicolás Maduro during next year’s elections. The winner, by a large margin, was María Corina Machado from the political party Vente Venezuela. Amidst a changing electoral landscape, the spirits of Venezuelan citizens have been revived by the hopes of finally seeing a legitimate president run the government. However, it remains unclear whether these dreams will come true as Maduro holds onto power, placing obstacles at every corner.

Following Hugo Chavez’s death, Maduro managed to win over a majority of the voters during the presidential elections of 2013 and went on to emerge as the elected president of Venezuela. The support from his constituents, however, was short-lived. Amidst severe human rights abuses and inadequate economic management which increased the number of people in poverty, the president’s popularity began to decline. The 2018 elections replayed the events of 2013, with Maduro remaining in presidency despite controversy and allegations of foul play. The upcoming 2024 elections represent a much better chance at finally parting ways with the Maduro administration.

Renewed Optimism

On October 17, 2023, the Venezuelan government and opposition finally restarted conversations after a year-long hiatus. The talks in Barbados, mediated by Norway, concluded with the signing of an agreement that will ensure fair electoral conditions next year. According to Reuters, as part of the compromises made, the Maduro government agreed to open up the elections to international observers from the European Union (EU), in addition to letting all qualified candidates compete against him, provided that they comply with the Venezuelan Constitution and laws. In return, the United States (U.S.) will temporarily cease energy sanctions on the country, thus providing relief for its economy.

Quickly following the Barbados talks, primary elections were conducted to transform a fragmented opposition into a solidified political force. The elected candidate will become the sole representative of the opposition, thereby increasing their chances of beating Maduro. What has left the country particularly hopeful for a better Venezuela has been the high turnout of attendees at voting centers, with the three million ballots that had been prepared running out. In addition, the diaspora of Venezuelans who are eligible to vote was expanded, following a months-long effort to update the voting rolls. In total, the number of Venezuelans abroad who were eligible to cast a vote increased from 86,000 to 397,000 people. Within this context of heightened civic participation, a clear preference from the citizens has become apparent as María Machado has been declared the formal winner of the elections, taking an overwhelming lead of 93 percent against her opponents.

Venezuela’s Own Iron Lady

Sometimes referred to as Venezuela’s Iron Lady due to her similarities with Margaret Thatcher, María Machado has often been said to be a far-right politician. However, she prefers to avoid strictly confining herself to such characterizations. In fact, in certain areas of politics, it would seem that the opposition leader leans more towards a leftist position, as reported by El País. Primarily, she has kept a flexible stance on issues such as abortion, Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Queer (LGBTQ+) rights, and medicinal marijuana, emphasizing that she does not plan on letting her religious beliefs determine the way she runs the government.

Nevertheless, the Margaret Thatcher comparison does prevail when it comes to Machado’s stance on Venezuela’s economy. Throughout her career, the 56-year-old politician has always been clear in her advocacy for a market free of state regulation. Specifically, if elected, she intends to privatize the state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), in addition to returning all expropriated businesses to their previous owners. This is part of a bigger vision to have Venezuela rejoin the international economy. Additionally, her deep disdain for the Chavista regime and its communist ideals has led her to reject the idea of a traditional welfare state, instead focusing on reducing the social safety net and increasing the country’s self-reliance.

Obstacles Ahead

Soon after the primary elections were concluded, Venezuela’s Supreme Justice Tribunal suspended its results, arguing that the electoral process had been tainted by fraud, though there is still no available evidence of that occurring. In an even bigger attempt to quell the opposition, the current regime has also stated that Machado is unable to participate in next year’s elections given that she is barred from running for public office. This ban on the opposition leader came only three days after she announced her participation in the primary elections, under allegations of fraud and tax violations, as well as her support of the U.S. sanctions on the Maduro government.

In light of this event, the opposition has been left looking for alternatives to keep the momentum going. In an interview with The Granite Tower (GT), Professor Lim Taekyoon (Institute of Latin American Studies) emphasized the risk that Machado’s ban could lead back to a partitioned opposition. Even if she is not able to run for president, some will opt to still participate in the elections, whereas others will seek to boycott them in response to the ban. In light of these circumstances, continuing public mobilization, in conjunction with U.S. pressure and threats of sanctions reactivation will be crucial in keeping a united front against Maduro. However, even if the elections are carried out, the possibility remains that Maduro will either rig or revoke the results, choosing to face public criticism over giving up power.

Venezuela stands at a critical juncture, with its citizens yearning for a change in leadership after years of political and economic uncertainty. The recent primary elections signaled reinvigorated hope among the opposition, with María Corina Machado emerging as a beacon of possibility for a better future. However, the path to the 2024 elections remains fraught with obstacles, as the Maduro government’s attempts to stifle the opposition persist. Under such a complex political landscape, it is crucial that both the opposition and the citizenry of Venezuela hang in there for the months to come, applying pressure on the international community and Nicolás Maduro alike. The country’s path to |Primary Elections of 2023. democracy depends on it.