Once hailed by the Global Peace Index as a beacon of safety in South America, Ecuador’s homicide rate has risen almost fivefold over the past six years, positioning it amongst the continent's most perilous nations. The recent assassination of political candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, dramatically emphasizes this alarming trajectory, questioning the nation's previously esteemed reputation for security and stability. The facade of tranquility has crumbled, revealing a grim tableau that many Ecuadorians feel blindsided by, as if waking from a dream too good to be true.

In the tapestry of Ecuador's political landscape, few figures have stood out as vividly as Fernando Alcibiades Villavicencio Valencia. Transitioning from investigative journalism to a political career, Villavicencio impressed his citizens with the indelible slogan “It’s time for the brave” and relentless exposés on corruption, which The Guardian labeled as “pivotal” to Ecuadorian’s political discourse. His unyielding criticism of former President Rafael Correa not only earned him accolades but led to a period of exile in Peru. However, the tide turned in his favor when charges were dropped in 2018. By 2021, Villavicencio's meteoric rise to the National Assembly was a testament to his resilience and vision. His presidential aspirations for 2023 promised a new chapter for many, yet the tragic event of August 9, when he was assassinated after a Quito rally, accentuated the very narrative he fought against: Ecuador's deepening descent into violence.

The Rise of Drug Trafficking

In 2021, the global landscape witnessed a sky-high supply and demand for cocaine, following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The “Global Report on Cocaine” from the United Nations (UN) highlighted an alarming surge of 35 percent in both coca bush cultivation and the production of the narcotic. To put the scale of the epidemic in perspective, 21.5 million individuals across the globe succumbed to this menacing allure, integrating themselves into the expanding user base. While the ramifications of this upswing touched every corner of the world, it was the nations of South America, and particularly Ecuador, that bore the burden. Grappled with deep-rooted challenges, The Guardian reported that Ecuador is on the verge of becoming a narco-state.

The New York Times revealed that the Colombian boom in cocaine cultivation, coupled with Ecuador's lax policing of the narcotrafficking industry, has since 2018 inadvertently transformed the country into an attractive base for the drug cartels. Initially, violence was confined to overburdened prisons, but as state control waned, these penitentiaries evolved into nerve centers for the narcotics trade. Today, global cartels, including Mexico's Sinaloa and Jalisco Nueva Generación, alongside the Albanian mafia, collaborate with Ecuador's domestic groups. With cocaine streaming in mainly from Colombia and Peru, a significant portion is shipped out from the bustling port of Guayaquil. Alarmingly, of the city's 300,000 monthly container dispatches, a mere 20 percent undergo inspection, as highlighted by anthropologist Jorge Núñez. News reports are recently rife with accounts of public beheadings, car bombings, and children targeted near homes and schools, which was manifested by local gang rivalries to induce fear and control over the port.

Additionally, the combination of Ecuador’s geographical location, its dollarized economy, and its tension with Colombia has further fueled the conflict. Its comprehensive transport networks, characterized by intricate routes and bustling ports, are prime gateways for cocaine shipments to the United States (U.S.) and Europe. Moreover, the nation's adoption of the U.S. dollar (USD) as its official currency has added another layer of appeal. According to CNN, this greatly simplified the typically arduous process of money laundering. To add to this intricate web of chaos, Ecuador’s northern boundary with Colombia became a hotspot of tension. As Colombian guerrilla groups intensified their activities, conflicts and drug-related challenges spilled across the border, further destabilizing Ecuador's precarious socio-political landscape.

An Unprepared and Unfit Government

In the face of escalating drug-related violence and crime, Ecuador's response has been woefully inadequate, highlighting an ill-equipped and unprepared state apparatus. According to CNN, Laura Lizarazo, a consultant at Control Risks said that various state forces are alarmingly unprepared, with notable deficiencies in their training, equipment, and strategies. The subsequent challenge is not only confronting the criminal behemoths on the streets but also prosecuting them effectively in the courts. The state’s judicial apparatus struggles to navigate this complex web, often hindered by limited resources and capacity.

The current Ecuador President Guillermo Lasso has steered a controversial course in these turbulent waters. In order to put an end to the violence, he resorted to drastic measures such as authorizing civilians to bear arms, a move that invited widespread consternation, especially among security firms. Lasso's policies, however, appear less as a calculated strategy and more as an urgent response to the mounting crisis. Professor Lim Tae Kyoon (Institute of Latin America Studies, Seoul National University) commented that from an international perspective, Lasso's political position appears increasingly precarious. His right-wing stance clashes with a predominantly left-wing National Assembly, causing notable tension between the Ecuadorian president and the legislature. This strain peaked recently when Lasso opted to dissolve the National Assembly amid impeachment pressures, setting the stage for early elections.

But beneath these overt challenges lies an even more insidious problem: corruption. Allegations and subsequent actions, such as the U.S.'s withdrawal of visas from eminent members of Ecuador's state security forces and legal institutions, hint at deep-seated misconduct. Accusations of ties to drug trafficking have marred the reputations of these public officers, who should be the wall against crime. This alarming infiltration is not restricted to security forces but also political realm, with drug cartels seemingly growing more potent as the state grapples with its vulnerabilities. According to CNN, Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Americas Society, revealed that it appears as a grim landscape where citizens often face a morbid choice: succumb to the allure of ill-gotten bribes or face the fatal wrath of bullets. The upcoming administration, regardless of its political hue, will need utmost integrity and continuous efforts to combat these profound challenges, said Professor Lim Tae Kyoon.

As Ecuador grapples with mounting violence and political unrest, its stability becomes an international concern. The escalating fears among Ecuadorians underscore the urgency for decisive action. Restoring security is now imperative, not solely for domestic tranquility but in the broader context of regional stability. The world watches closely, hoping for swift measures to ensure the safety of its citizens and for the nation's prospects.