With the global population projected to reach eight billion people, a remarkable statistic emerges – soon, one in every five individuals on the planet will trace their roots back to India. This unprecedented shift has sparked curiosity and raised important questions about the implications of the nation’s newfound primacy. Will it open new doors to fresh opportunities or exacerbate existing social inequalities and climate change? Could this perhaps herald the dawn of a new geopolitical order?

Each era has its own peculiarities and its own protagonists. The second post-war period witnessed the rise of the United States (U.S.), followed by Japan in the 1970s as it conquered East Asian markets. More recently, the exponential development of China has forced the Western world to question the durability of its own economic dominance. Against this backdrop, several publications have designated the 2020s as “India’s decade,” igniting expectations that New Delhi will become the next epicenter of an astounding economic miracle. However, India’s current media prominence is primarily concerned with its alarmingly high population, now the world’s largest. Many have cautioned against underestimating the magnitude of India’s internal social, infrastructural, and climatic challenges; however, some, like Bob Sternfels, CEO of McKinsey & Co., have optimistically envisioned that “India will be the world’s future talent factory.” 

Two Indias

India’s path to economic prosperity seems paved with promise, boasting a large working population and attracting foreign investments. However, beneath the surface, the country’s irregular demographics pose a formidable obstacle to development. In fact, India’s population growth sheds light on the existence of two strikingly different socio-economic realities. Since gaining independence, the population increased steadily across the nation, but a downward trend has emerged since the 1980s, affecting certain social contexts unevenly. This decline in fertility was initially attributed to the implementation of family planning measures, yielding the most significant results in the prosperous states of the south. In contrast, impoverished states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh continue to struggle with persistently high birth rates. This disparity has thus contributed to widening the gap between the rich and the poor, amplifying the challenges posed by India’s overall population rise.

The issue of overpopulation has evolved beyond its demographic context and has become a subject of politicization within the Indian public sphere. As described by The Guardian, the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, governed by the hardline Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has utilized the considerable population size as a rationale for formulating a population control bill, proposing a two-child limit per couple. The draft bill has garnered attention and raised concerns among sympathizers of the Islamic community, who perceive it as a thinly disguised discriminatory measure targeting Muslims. These apprehensions stem from a prevailing narrative propagated by Hindu nationalists, alleging a rapid demographic growth of Muslims surpassing that of Hindus, fueling suspicions of a purported Muslim conspiracy to attain majority status in India. 

However, it is necessary to observe that Muslims constitute approximately 14 percent of the population, while Hindus still account for approximately 80 percent. Quraishi, a former Indian civil servant, has emphasized that the relatively higher fertility rates among Muslims in India are not inherently linked to their religious beliefs. Instead, these disparities can be attributed to socio-economic factors, such as higher levels of poverty, lower education levels, and limited access to healthcare services. Notably, the fertility rate among Muslims is also experiencing a more pronounced decline compared to the Hindu population. 

On the Edge of a Cliff

India faces not only political and social divisions but also pragmatic concerns about accommodating and integrating a larger population. With a growing number of job seekers, internal migration to industrial centers is set to intensify. The BBC reports that approximately 200 million Indians have already migrated internally, signaling significant implications for the country. Migration expert Irudaya Rajan warns of the potential rise of slums and the spread of diseases if migrants are not provided with adequate living standards. India’s high urbanization rate strains its existing infrastructure, which is ill-equipped to handle the increasing influx of people. Moreover, this rapid demographic shift is impacting critical sectors such as healthcare and education, which struggle to meet their requirements due to insufficient national funding. 

Will India Supersede China?

As India grapples with internal challenges, the world is keen to understand the implications of its demographic primacy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that India will outperform other major economies this year, with a projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.9 percent. Naturally, the significant workforce of the country has prompted a parallelism with China’s economic boom, with many expecting India to surpass Chinese records. The reasons cited primarily involve the younger working population, on average below the age of 30, the rising costs of manufacturing in China, and the advantages linked to the absence of a language barrier. From customer service to software development, India might soon outshine China due to its better integration into the western network of companies and consumers. 

Despite the promising assertions, India’s infrastructural deficiencies continue to attract skepticism. Notably, the German publication Der Spiegel has sparked outrage in Indian media by satirically depicting an overcrowded Indian train alongside a modern Chinese bullet train, emphasizing their concern for “quantity over quality” in India. Despite such criticisms, Indian media has remained steadfastly optimistic, refusing to waver from its positive stance. The U.S. has also applauded India’s ambitions, citing it as an emerging powerhouse aligned with American democratic values, according to CNN. Ultimately, as India navigates this new wave of attention, its future will hinge on its ability to remain competitive while narrowing its concerning social gaps.