In recent years, North Korea’s continuous launching of missiles and development of nuclear weapons have led to international consternation, as they generate fear on a regional level and destabilize global security. Gambling with enormous risks, North Korea’s handling of nuclear weapons poses a threat not only to its neighboring countries, such as Japan and South Korea, but also to faraway nations like the United States (U.S.). The exact motivations behind North Korea’s investment in nuclear weapons programs are unclear, creating uncertainty for international relations.

Since the end of the Korean War, tensions have remained high between North and South Korea. After Kim Jong Il died in December 2011, Kim Jong Un took over as North Korea’s leader, and he has since invested heavily in North Korean nuclear programs. However, nuclear weapons have been an issue in North Korea since the late 1980s and early 1990s. When the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union came to an end, North Korea was affected in adverse ways due to losses of alliances and challenges to its regime. Eventually, North Korean authorities sought security through the pursuit of nuclear weapons. According to Professor Lim Jae-Cheon (Public Sociology and Korean Unification/Diplomacy, Korea University Sejong Campus), “There are internal and external reasons why North Korea has pursued a nuclear weapons program. Externally, with nuclear weapons, North Korea aims to deter the aggressive measures of the U.S. as well as those of South Korea. Internally, it wants to strengthen regime legitimacy with nuclear armament, which is related to domestic regime stability. North Korean leaders consider nuclear weapons as the most essential means for regime survival. Behind the North’s pursuit of them, there is the lack of its confidence in regime sustenance from internal and external (potential) threats.”

South Korea and North Korea: Aspirations to Uphold Peace

Despite sharing the same history, culture, and language, there are numerous differences between South and North Korea, including their economic status. North Korea has an isolated economy and a political structure modeled after the Soviet Union. North Korea also has access to many natural resources, which is one of the key factors driving China and Russia to cooperate with North Korea. On the other hand, South Korea has seen phenomenal economic growth in conjunction with rapid globalization and modernization, and it has been 27 years since South Korea joined the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Maintaining a harmonious relationship between South and North Korea is essential for maintaining the peace on the Korean Peninsula.

South–North relations appeared to reach a milestone when the two signed a reconciliation and nonaggression pact in December 1991. After the death of North Korean leader Kim Il-Sung in 1994, hope was reignited for further reconciliation and for peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula. In October 1994, North Korea agreed to close a nuclear reactor in exchange for two new reactors with electrical power, raising hopes that North Korea’s nuclear ambitions would be settled. North Korea also pledged to abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs in 2005 during the Six-Party talks. However in 2009, North Korea decided to leave the Six-Party talks and continued nuclear weapon pursuits. Once again, in 2012, North Korea promised to suspend its own missile and nuclear development in exchange for food aid which turned out to be an empty promise when they conducted another nuclear test in February 2013.

Years after the denuclearization attempts towards North Korea failed, South-North relations once again faced tension when the U.S., one of the closest allies of South Korea, exchanged threats with North Korea in 2018. However, during the PyeongChang 2018 Winter Olympics, South and North Korean players arrived together at the opening ceremonies and marched under a single banner that illustrated a united Korea on a field of white. This led to the holding of a summit in April 2018, at which the two countries declared to work towards the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Over the years, there were multiple attempts to strengthen the connection between South and North Korea from both sides. One such effort by South Korea was the Sunshine Policy during the Kim Dae-jung and Rho Moo-hyun administrations. The main objective of this policy was to narrow the gap in the economic power of the two countries, with South Korea willing to engage with North Korea through cooperation. This policy resulted in strong engagement between the countries and positively affected inter-Korean relations. Three Korean summit meetings in Pyongyang, two meetings in Panmunjom and, later, brief meetings between family members who were separated by the Korean War were held. Another attempt at peace on the Korean Peninsula was the Panmunjom Declaration, with both sides declaring their will to pursue denuclearization by making active efforts to seek support from the international community.

The South Korean government has long talked about the importance of a nuclear-free approach to peace. Today, South Korea still favors this strategy. According to Professor Lim, “North Korea’s nuclear armament has raised several security concerns in South Korea. First, it has changed the public opinion in South Korea. South Koreans increasingly feel that North Korea’s security threats are real, thus they are leaning to the policy position that South Korea also needs to be armed with nuclear weapons against the nuclear threats. Second, the nuclear issue legitimizes South Korea’s diplomatic posture of strengthening the trilateral relations of the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, which current Yoon administration is doing. Third, it has dramatically restrained inter-Korean cooperation and exchanges. The previous Moon Jae-in government attempted to revive inter-Korean relations, but failed.” On July 22, 2022, the South Korean Ministry of Unification (MOU) stated that President Yoon Suk Yeol’s administrative policy for reunification between South and North Korea is heavily based on a “denuclearized, peaceful, and prosperous Korean Peninsula.’’

A Glimpse at the Washington Declaration

On April 26, 2023, South Korea and the U.S. held a summit in honor of their 70-year alliance. A nuclear deterrence strategy was one of the main agreements between the two countries. In order to achieve this, President Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden issued the Washington Declaration, a bilateral statement of the alliance’s development, which, as stated by President Biden, aims to “reinforce extended deterrence and respond to” North Korea’s developing nuclear threats. Implying that South Korea would continue its nuclear-weapon-free status, the declaration also includes a reinforcement of South Korea’s current nuclear nonproliferation responsibilities.

Some people have questioned South Korea’s choice to stay unarmed. In fact, in January, President Yoon considered the development of nuclear weapons for South Korea if the North Korean nuclear threat continued to grow. Despite the growing interest in South Korea for its own independent nuclear capacity, the Washington Declaration focused on South Korea’s intention to remain part of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Through this pledge, both the U.S. and South Korea implicitly agree that South Korea should not pursue nuclear weapons, while allowing the U.S. to use its own nuclear arsenal as “extended deterrence” for the protection of South Korea.

The Washington Declaration opens the door to the establishment of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) for South Korea and the U.S. According to Professor Lim, “The Washington summit between the South Korean and U.S. presidents last April was positive in that they succeeded in strengthening their ties, particularly deciding to establish a joint NCG to cope with increasing North Korean nuclear threats. The North Korean nuclear issue makes South Korea move toward the U.S.” The NCG is a clear declaration that South Korea and the U.S. military will together seek to deter threats such as nuclear missile attacks. The NCG is thus anticipated to promote ongoing alliance consultations on American nuclear capabilities.

The alliance between South Korea and the U.S. also plans to actively engage in joint planning to give South Korea more power in terms of protection. New nuclear deterrence measures to aid South Korea include stronger cyber security and greater economic investment. Because the U.S. is not in favor of sharing nuclear weapon technology with South Korea, the NCG acts as a bridge that will ensure continuous solidarity between the two countries. The NCG is designed to offer South Korea many benefits, particularly in terms of security and consultation which will also act as a safety net against unforeseeable threats.

Ramping Up the North Korean Nuclear Weapons Program

According to Professor Lee Byong-Chul (Institute for Far Eastern Studies, Kyungnam University), North Korea’s nuclear research program began in the 1950s, when Pyongyang feared that it was lagging behind compared to South Korea. He mentioned that only five countries retain a de jure, which means legally recognized, status of being nuclear-weapon states (NWS) under the NPT, namely the U.S., Russia, the United Kingdom (UK), France, and China. In contrast, countries such as India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea are actually de facto NWS as they developed a nuclear capability outside the NPT.

North Korea’s first known nuclear test took place in 2006 at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site. Since then, it has conducted six underground tests, with the most recent one being in 2017. According to BBC News, North Korea claimed that the 2017 nuclear bomb test involved its first thermonuclear device, which is the most powerful type of atomic weapon, with a force of 100 to 370 kilotons. For comparison, a 100-kiloton bomb would be approximately six times more powerful than the one the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, in 1945. North Korea thus demonstrated its nuclear capabilities to the world, and any further testing would breach United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions.

North Korea has also tested numerous missiles while developing its nuclear weapons, and the frequency of its launches has increased significantly in the past decade. According to CNN, the Missile Defense Project under the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) claimed that more than three-quarters of missile launches and nuclear tests conducted in North Korea since 1984 have been recorded under Kim Jong Un’s leadership, and more than a quarter occurred in 2022. TIME reported data from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) showing that North Korea conducted a record 68 missile launches in 2022, which was 10 times more than that in 2021. Professor Lee explained that the increase in the number of nuclear tests under Kim Jong Un’s leadership was because of Kim’s belief that the development of nuclear capabilities would safeguard the Kim regime and its national security.

Professor Lee also stated that the majority of these tests involved ballistic and cruise missiles. One of North Korea’s most powerful weapons to date is undoubtedly Hwasong-17, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) first unveiled in October 2020. With a range of 15,000 kilometers and designed to carry three or four nuclear warheads, it was referred to as a “monster missile” by Reuters because it is the “largest road-mobile, liquid-fueled ICBM in the world” and had the capacity to hit the U.S. mainland. Since then, North Korea has reportedly launched older and less advanced versions of Hwasong-17 twice, in March and November 2022.

On March 17, 2023, North Korea’s state news agency Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) confirmed that they had successfully launched a modified version of Hwasong-17, together with Kim Jong Un’s daughter’s first official appearance. With the launch coming mere hours before the summit talks between President Yoon and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Yonhap News Agency reported that Kim Jong Un “stressed the need to strike fear into the enemies and warned that the allies’ persistent military moves against the North will only bring irreversible, grave threats onto themselves.” Professor Lee believes that this indicates that North Korea will continue to test missiles with longer ranges, with Kim Jong Un keeping his promise to rapidly enhance and expand North Korea’s nuclear capabilities.

Global Dynamics: Denuclearization Efforts and International Relations

In order to find a peaceful resolution to the security concerns as a result of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and its withdrawal from the NPT in 2003, the Six-Party Talks were established in 2003 as a diplomatic effort to find a peaceful resolution to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. The participating nations included North Korea, South Korea, the U.S., Japan, China, and Russia, and the discussions focused on denuclearization, regional security, and working toward peace on the Korean Peninsula. With multiple rounds held over the years, the talks experienced periods of progress and setbacks due to differing perspectives and trust issues among the parties involved. To this day, the Six-Party Talks have not resulted in a comprehensive resolution, but they have served as an important platform for both the dialogue and diplomatic engagements concerning North Korea’s nuclear use.

Neighboring countries differ in their attitudes toward North Korea’s nuclear weapons p rograms. According to Reuters, the U.S., China, and Russia argued over “who was to blame for spurring North Korea’s dozens of ballistic missile launches and development of a nuclear weapons program” during a UNSC meeting on March 21. The nations had met to discuss the testing of Hwasong-17 while under UNSC sanctions and what this may mean for the future. China and Russia blamed the provocation by North Korea on the joint military drills conducted by the U.S. and South Korea, whereas the U.S. alleged that China and Russia were encouraging North Korea’s behavior by refusing to punish North Korea at the UNSC. Professor Lee explained that the council had divided opinions on how to respond to North Korea, with China and Russia having vetoed a U.S.-led initiative to impose additional UN sanctions on North Korea in May 2022 because they have close ties with the Kim regime.

Japan has maintained a firm and unwavering stance on North Korea’s nuclear weapon programs. It strongly opposes North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and advocates for the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Due to their geographical proximity and historical conflicts, Japan believes the program to be a significant security threat and prioritizes the regional stability and security from potential missile attacks. On April 13, the launching of Hwasong-18, North Korea’s first-ever solid fuel ICBM, triggered the emergency alert system in Hokkaido, Japan. As reported by CNN, the residents received an evacuation order advising them to find shelter due to the possibility of a missile landing on or close to the area. However, the evacuation order was rescinded within 30 minutes, and local authorities later verified that the missile had landed outside of Japanese territory, to the east of the Korean Peninsula.

The alerts were heavily criticized for spreading misinformation and instilling fear in the public. However, extra caution was taken due to the fact that the use of solid fuel for an ICBM launch renders it more challenging to preempt compared to earlier missiles propelled by liquid fuel. The use of solid fuel also allows for easier concealment and eliminates the need for hours of preparation in comparison to liquid-fueled missiles due to its lack of fueling requirements and reduced dependency on support vehicles. Additionally, North Korea had not been answering the twice-a-day phone calls from South Korea, and the absence of daily military check-ins has increased tensions throughout East Asia. According to CNN, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno condemned the launch by saying that it was “an outrageous act that escalates provocations against the entire international community” and that “North Korea’s series of actions, including its repeated launches of ballistic missiles, is a threat to Japan, the region, and the world.” Professor Lee added that progress toward denuclearization has been slow and uneven, and the situation remains a major source of tension in the region to this day.

Going forward, it is becoming increasingly suggested that South Korea eventually develop its own nuclear weapons to defend itself if the situation becomes increasingly unstable. According to BBC News, Choi Ji-young, a member of the Forum for Republic of Korea (ROK)-U.S. Nuclear Strategy, said that “It is irrational to think another country should protect us. This is our problem and our responsibility.” However, Professor Lee noted that South Korea’s pursuit of developing its own nuclear weapons would violate the NPT, since South Korea ratified the nonproliferation regime long ago. South Korea, which relies heavily on exports, also needs to stabilize domestic and regional security.

North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and its extensive testing have cast a long shadow over global security and stability. Their endless pursuit of nuclear capabilities has triggered heightened tensions, regional anxieties, and complications in international relations. The unpredictable nature of North Korea’s actions, coupled with potentially catastrophic consequences, has created a perpetual cliffhanger in global politics. As North Korea continues to develop its nuclear programs further, other countries are grappling with effective solutions for denuclearization while navigating the balance between diplomatic negotiations and regional stability. The fate of North Korea’s nuclear program remains uncertain, making it a pressing issue and calling for strategic responses not just from neighboring countries but also nations around the world. It is important to closely monitor North Korea’s future plans and continue to search for common ground to prevent the relations from becoming more strained.