Ethiopia, located in the “Horn of Africa,” is known as one of the two countries in Africa that was never colonized by Europe. Partly due to this status, Ethiopia has been described as the voice and “stabilizing force” of Africa – notably with the African Union (AU) stationed in its capital city – amidst the numerous troubles and strife that postcolonial Africa has faced. But in November 2020, the federal government and Tigray, the northernmost region of the country, entered a messy civil war; although the war ended at its twoyear mark in November 2022, it spotlights unresolved ethnic conflicts within Ethiopia and repercussions it could beget on the global stage.

The Background of the Tigray War

Ethiopia is a nation that consists of more than eighty different ethnic groups. However, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), led by the ethnic minority Tigrayans (6 percent of total population) has dominated political leadership in both Tigray and Ethiopia for a long period of time, ostracizing other major ethnic groups including the Somali, Oromo (35 percent), and Amhara (28 percent). This fueled civilian discontent and antipathy toward Tigrayans. According to an Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) report written by Professor Kim Dongsuk (African and Middle Eastern Studies, Korea National Diplomatic Academy), TPLF established its monopoly on political power immediately after the 1991 downfall of the communist regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam, when several newly emerging political parties joined together to form the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which TPLF was part of. But the TPLF leader Meles Zenawi ruled from 1991 to 2012, and TPLF elites continued to dominate politics in the federal government even afterwards, leading to a widespread antigovernment sentiment among other ethnic groups.

The political rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali in 2018 ended the TPLF autocracy, and with the federal government election planned for 2020 delayed “due to COVID-19,” TPLF leaders executed their own local elections as a sign of disobedience. The federal government regarded this as an act of treason. Further, Prime Minister Ahmed Ali created the Prosperity Party that combined all ethnic parties, to the dismay of Tigrayans, all of which helped brew the two-year conflict between the federal government of Ethiopia and the Tigrayan forces. The anti-Tigray sentiment among the other ethnicities that have been historically oppressed, as well as Tigray’s preference for ethnic federalism over the federal government’s goal of developing a strong central government, were factors that sparked the armed conflict.

Atrocious War Crimes and The Aftermath

Both the federal government and Tigrayan forces have been accused of committing grave human rights violations toward the opposing populations. The Ethiopian government has been accused of indiscriminate civilian massacres resulting in hundreds of thousands of casualties, and over 70,000 refugees that fled from Ethiopia to Sudan, according to the United Nations Refugee Agency. Nine million people in the areas impacted by conflict are afflicted with inadequate access to food, and 40 percent of the population is under extreme hunger. The country of Eritrea, which sits above Ethiopia, has also intervened in the conflict, attacking the Tigrayan refugees and committing atrocious war crimes with reports of sexual violence, looting, and murder, although it currently denies these accusations. However, what is concerning today is that even after the peace deal, cases of murder and sexual violence continue to be reported.

Within the country, according to Professor Kim, this war could further “instigate other ethnic groups to agitate for more autonomy or even independence,” and also “consolidate Ahmed’s hold on power,” who effectively mobilized Ethiopian nationalism. Although the situation has improved since the peace deal in November 2022, the grave humanitarian crisis that ensued is seeing ramifications today, with food insecurity, mass displacement, limited access to education for children that still plague the region. The federal government officially declared the TPLF a “terrorist organization” in May 2021, but as of now, that label has been removed.

Repercussions in the Horn of Africa and Beyond

Being a peninsula in East Africa, the Horn of Africa is of geopolitical significance as it is where ships pass through the Suez Canal, it faces the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and it is near the Arabian Peninsula. According to The Washington Post, Ethiopia has been “a frequent contributor to international peacekeeping missions,” as well as a “diplomatic heavyweight that has traditionally been a bulwark in a region afflicted by civil war and Islamist extremism.” Ethiopia’s status as the provider of security has been disrupted due to the war, weakening the diplomatic partnerships Ethiopia has long forged with the United States (U.S.) and other European countries, which now condemn Ethiopia for its human rights violations during war, says Professor Kim. “This prompts Ethiopipa to seek and reinforce relationships with China, Russia, and Turkey [instead.]”

The war will also impact nearby countries such as Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea. Sudan has capitalized on Ethiopia’s situation and occupied the Al-Fashaga region, a land claimed by both countries, which deteriorated the two states’ diplomatic relations. Talks among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt concerning the prevention of the flooding of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will likely be disrupted, a topic crucial to “drought-prone” East Africa. In the civil war in Somalia between its government and al-Shabaab, an Islamic extremist militant group, the government received help from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which is an African peacekeeping force Ethiopia is a member of; but Ethiopia’s unavailability of troops due to the war has now decapacitated efforts to combat al-Shabaab. However, the conflict may also serve as a lesson to other African countries. “I think that the Tigray War would drive African countries to ponder how to manage ethnic tension or dispute – especially countries with secessionist issues like Nigeria, Cameroon, and Mali. [They will] formulate policies that would stave off secessionist violence in their own country,” said Professor Kim.

However, the conflict may also serve as a lesson to other African countries. “I think that the Tigray War would drive African countries to ponder how to manage ethnic tension or dispute – especially countries with secessionist issues like Nigeria, Cameroon, and Mali. [They will] formulate policies that would stave off secessionist violence in their own country,” said Professor Kim. The general public is often exhausted by news of this nature; “compassion fatigue” is a term used to describe the desensitization to violence due to overexposure to news reports of war and violence, and ethnic conflicts in Africa seem to the public a storm in a teacup. But the public has the duty to pay due attention to these events, even when they seem far away.