In December 2022, Turkey woke up to shocking news of Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem Imamoglu being convicted for his remark against the officials from Turkey’s Supreme Election Board (YSK). Imamoglu was sentenced to two years, seven months and 15 days in prison. The possible imprisonment of Imamoglu frightened his followers due to the effects it might have on the upcoming elections. Adding to the confusion, a second court case against Imamoglu headlined the news with talks of adding a seven-year-long sentence on the grounds of “bid rigging.” According to the indictment filed by the Buyukcekmece criminal court, which is the criminal court of a district in Istanbul, an alleged total of 250,086 Turkish Liras (TL) was lost due to fraud committed by the mayor and six former staff members. Imamoglu will have his first hearing on June 15.

Ekrem Imamoglu, a former real estate developer and local politician, was first elected as the Mayor of Istanbul in 2019. Imamoglu easily connected to the country’s demographics and constituencies, as he showed an appreciation for becoming the mayor of the most crowded city located on two continents, at the heart of history, economy, and culture, and has since then showed consistent concern for improving the lives of Istanbul’s citizens. To act upon his duty, Imamoglu stated on the official page of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, that his mission was “seeing humans as the focus of our services.” Increasing economic and social opportunities for women, offering social work guidance for social support system users and giving cash support for low-income families were included in Imamoglu’s vision for the metropolitan city. However, the sudden charges against him before the upcoming elections block his targeted plans from coming to life and reduce his chance of becoming a candidate for the 2023 elections. As the election period nears, the timing of the court decision paints an undemocratic image of the country in the eyes of the world.

AKP and CHP — Long Years of Conflict

Imamoglu’s party, the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party, the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, have been rivalling each other for many years. Among critics, Imamoglu’s sentence was interpreted to hold a political goal of blocking the mayor from entering elections, as Imamoglu’s recent popularity became a threat for the opposition party. Imamoglu’s statement that made him face the court involved him calling those who cancelled the March 2019 elections “fools.” After Imamoglu’s statement, the court ruled that his remarks were targeted towards Supreme Election Council (YSK) members. According to Imamoglu, this remark was not targeted against YSK but was a response to the Minister of Interior, Suleyman Soylu, who is also a member of AKP, and he explained that he was using the same expression as Soylu.

The AKP has been Turkey’s ruling party for more than twenty years. Their journey to becoming a leading party goes back to the multi-party period of Turkey after World War II. After the war ended, Turkey went back and forth between democratic and undemocratic transitions in politics. President Erdogan and his party’s rise was a result of his mastering Turkey’s tradition of civilian electoral politics and the AKP’s involvement in reshaping the military system. AKP entered the scene of politics in 2001, and since then the party has endured polarization. The party’s first coalition consisted of traditional center-right voters, Islam followers, and European Union supporters that favored AKP for the party’s promise of actualizing democratic reform in Turkey.

Imamoglu’s Perceived Threat to the AKP

President Erdogan’s popularity flourished for two decades that were marked by economic growth. However, in the last 10 years, Turkey’s surging economic growth saw a decline. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19), moreover, started a severe economic recession that took a drastic toll on AKP’s popularity.

Turkey’s local elections in 2019 revealed that while President Erdogan’s popularity dropped, the opposing candidate Imamoglu triumphed in a number of major cities like Ankara and Istanbul. The AKP’s diminishing support was primarily related to socioeconomic problems such as Turkey’s currency, the Turkish Lira (TL), losing its value, high unemployment rates, financial hardships, and a record inflation that reached a 25-year high in 2022.

What Will Happen Next?

The election will be in May 2023, and millions of Turkish citizens will be voting in both parliamentary and presidential elections. According to The Washington Post, “the outcome will shape geopolitical and economic calculations in Washington and Moscow, as well as capitals across Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa.” Turkish citizens are also aware of the importance of the elections on the international front. The greatest concern is that the spectators are divided in two about the future fairness of elections, as Turkey’s government controls most of the bureaucracy, judiciary, as well as various media outlets.

Imamoglu’s verdict also raised other possibilities, with some even considering it an action that could possibly backfire on the government. According to Mehmet Barlas, a writer in Sabah, one of the most popular pro-government magazines in Turkey, the current situation is a “bizarre verdict that will have no consequences for Imamoglu whatsoever no matter how you look at it.” Such a declaration signifies the increasingly polarized opinions concerning Imamoglu’s imprisonment. According to the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), Imamoglu’s conviction may result in the opposition’s solidarity and their consequential win for the election.

The current deadline for the elections is in June but President Erdogan mentioned moving it up one month earlier to May, a month before Imamoglu’s first hearing. Whether Imamoglu’s verdict will be beneficial for the AKP’s success in the election is open to discussion. However, it is undeniable that the AKP will face the most critical elections since 2002. The CHP and its alliances’ candidate choice for the elections is crucial as Imamoglu’s charges point to the current leader of CHP, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, as the presumed candidate. As the elections will mainly focus on prospects regarding inflation, it is highly likely that Turkey will enter a new period that may challenge the AKP’s twenty-year-long dominance in power.