On July 8, 2022, Shinzo Abe was assassinated while delivering his political campaign speech in Nara City, Japan. The suspect, Tetsuya Yamagami, holding a grudge against religious organizations, believed Abe was connected to the organization, which led to his shooting Abe with a homemade gun. Despite having multiple security guards surrounding him, Abe was easily approached by an arm-bearing stranger within the radius of just a few meters. With numerous unresolved controversies, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces pledged to undergo a thorough investigation, implementing necessary changes to the security system.
67 years old at the time of his death, Shinzo Abe served as the prime minister of Japan for 8 years, setting a record in Japan’s political history. First having entered parliament in 1993, Abe gained national fame through a staunch stance against North Korea. This was concerning the abduction of Japanese citizens accused of being spies, an act conceded by Kim Jeong Il in September 2002. Having led the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan for three consecutive periods, Abe eventually won by a landslide in the 2006 Japanese prime minister election.
The Sudden Death of Shinzo Abe
On the day of his assassination, Abe suffered from two bullet wounds that quickly led to his death, announced by Nara Medical University Hospital when he was being transferred to a hospital for treatment. According to BBC, witnesses claimed to see a man carrying a large gun, standing in front of Abe during the campaign. Many bystanders doubted and were shocked that Japan would possess such a weak security system after witnessing how swiftly the shooting took place. At a press briefing on July 9, the head of the Nara prefectural police acknowledged flaws in the protection provided to Abe, stating, “It is undeniable that there were problems in the security.” In light of the accident, the Japanese National Police Agency has reported plans to verify the procedures and problems of campaigns by politicians.
The purpose of the assassination by the suspect, Yamagami, is said to be related to personal rather than political matters. The religious institution in question is the Unification Church. The Unification Church, also known as Family Federation for World Peace and Unification, is a religious movement founded in 1954 by South Korean messiah claimant Moon Seon Myeong. Investigators stated that Yamagami held a grudge against the Unification Church after his mother had given up 100 million yen to the church, eventually filing for bankruptcy. Japanese Self[1]Defense Forces discovered that Yamagami was convinced Abe was to blame for the church’s rising influence in Japan, leading to his family’s financial struggles. Meanwhile, at a press conference in Seoul on July 19, 2022, Chung Hwan Kwak, the former president of Unification Church, apologized in public with a grave sense of responsibility.
A state funeral for Abe, funded entirely by the government, was held on July 14. As Abe has had a notable influence on Japan, his economic policies are widely referred to as Abenomics. Abenomics is a long-term economic initiative proposed to escape Japan’s former 20-year-long recession. As a result, “stock price recovery, employment indicators, and a low exchange rate of the yen problem have been resolved, though failing on domestic facility investment, wage growth, and consumption recovery” stated Professor Lee Chang Min (Division of Integrated Japanese Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies). Ultimately, Abe was able to gain significant political credibility by having 93 members of the LDP support him – a high turnout compared to that of current prime minister Kishida who only has 44 LDP advocates.
What Lies Ahead for Japan’s Diplomacy?
During his time as prime minister, Abe’s historical revisionist perception of the past left Japan maintaining a hardline policy on South Korea-Japan relations. Historical revisionism involves the reinterpretation of historical events challenging the more well-accepted, established perspectives. Thus, Japan counterattacked the Supreme Court of Korea acknowledging Japan’s responsibility for forced labor in 2015. Yet, Abe’s attitude towards Japan’s history of forced labor showcased his disregard for the matter claiming “no more apology and compromise is to be made” as reported by CNN during a war anniversary speech in 2015.
In line with this, it is doubtful that Japan’s relationship with South Korea will notably change after Abe’s death. Professor Lee states, “Although Abe is gone, his right-wing nationalism within the LDP would be a major attitude for the time being.” Reigning nearly a decade while achieving diplomatic success with the United States (U.S.) promoting international cooperation, Abe’s diplomacy has somewhat solidified the identity of Japanese politics. The possibly unchanging dynamic of foreign diplomacy exercised by Japan becomes an even likelier prospect considering these political matters will be less prioritized than achieving stability within the party.
If Kishida successfully gains a stable position within the party in the future, other Asian countries may expect to encounter multiple new political issues— Kishida’s economic policies focus on distribution, while Abe’s would be headed toward development. Since Japan suffers from unsolved wage hikes, New Capitalism based on a virtuous cycle of economic growth emphasizing sustainability is likely to be commenced, led by the Kishida administration. Furthermore, “although Abe besieged China through the Indo-Pacific strategy based on a U.S.-Japan alliance, Kishida might take new diplomatic actions by establishing amicable relations within Asia”, stated professor Lee. Through the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yoshimasa Hayashi, known as a representative of pro-China, it might be possible to forge an alliance in Asia. Therefore, Kishida’s role of unifying his clique might be the utmost task in unfolding his politics in Japan.
Despite mixed evaluations of Abe, it is undeniable that his assassination left the global society distraught. Though his sudden death caused a vacuum in key political initiatives, it may be noteworthy to pay attention to the Kishida administration’s next step. Although it is unrealistic for Japan to switch political and economic initiatives abruptly, whether Kishida could replace Abe’s political power in the LDP might be a turning point in the South Korea – Japan relationship.