Food prices have long been heavily affected by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and the dramatic effects of climate change. Nevertheless, the world has recently seen even greater spikes in the cost of food due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In fact, the United Nations (UN) food agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), claimed that international food prices could rise by 20 percent on average. Stability of agricultural products around the world are at risk, and as the prolonged war in Ukraine threatens the supplies of key stable crops, concerns arise over the potential for a global food crisis and economic unrest becoming a reality.

On February 3, a global index released by the UN FAO revealed that food prices in January reached their highest since 2011, a striking level since records began in 1990. However, the war in Ukraine is expected to push up rates on food prices as it disrupts the global supply chain and production. The upsurging levels have affected prices of staple items such as wheat, grains, and bread, imposing higher burdens on countries in Northern Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, all of whom greatly depend on these agricultural product imports. In response to alarming concerns, the World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley has warned that the conflict in Ukraine could lead to soaring global food prices, leaving the most devastating impacts on the world’s poorest countries.

Immediate Effects of the Ukraine Invasion

Following the invasion of Ukraine, prices of major agricultural products skyrocketed. According to the FAO, Ukraine and Russia are considered to be the “breadbasket of the world” as they account for nearly 30 percent of global wheat exports. As wheat production and export from these two countries have become in high demand, prices of agricultural products have been traded at their highest levels, while as many as 45 million people seem to be on the edge of famine according to Bloomberg.

Along with rising food costs, equipment that is essential for growing food is becoming pricier. For instance, prices of fertilizers have soared to multi-year highs following the surge in prices of natural gas and coal, as well as Russia’s decision to suspend their domestic fertilizer exports in March, leading to fears of shortages on vital crop inputs to global markets. Moreover, the ongoing Ukraine war is expected to have a tremendous impact on the upcoming harvesting cycle as tensions and military aggression between the two countries affect multiple parts of agricultural areas due to constant bombings and closed Ukrainian ports. With suspended trading routes and cultivation, food security is set to take a major blow in this year’s harvesting season.

Most alarmingly, countries that are dependent upon Ukraine’s exports are highly vulnerable to impacts of food security shocks. According to Professor Lim Song Soo (Department of Food and Resource Economics), an international food price increase will threaten the nutrition and well-being of both individuals and households. Furthermore, Professor Lim claims that the average difference in agricultural production between developing countries and developed countries is vast and would undermine the sustainable quality of life by placing the burden on food spending by the poor, which could lead to so-called “food riots” at the national level.

In fact, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) warned that the impacts of elevated food prices have already been reaching countries near East and North Africa and are spreading to developing countries where the poorest people are at the greatest risk. In March, the WFP implied that around 13 million people across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia are facing severe hunger; the worst is expected to come as the FAO warned that 15 to 20 million people in these three countries could face serious food insecurity over the course of 2022.

Approaching the Concerns

Along with the collateral damage caused by the pandemic and climate change, the Ukraine crisis collides with food security outlooks. In fact, according to the UN, poverty is worsening in developing countries as one in 10 people in the world already lack enough food to eat. Price increases make it a burden for these people to support their living, bringing reasons to why international governments would need to take appropriate measures to approach the concerns on the potential of global famine.

As concerns over food security intensify, countries have begun implementing food protection policies over possible food shortages. Hungary, Indonesia, and Argentina have started restricting exports of agricultural products, ranging from wheat to cooking oil in order to curb domestic prices and protect its domestic food supplies. However, despite international organizations raising security measures to minimize the knock-on effects of rising food prices sparked by the Ukrainian conflict, WFP was forced to reduce food rations due to a funding shortage at the beginning of the year. This has left millions of households at risk, causing many to criticize the UN for its mismanagement of economic security, especially in heavily affected countries.

Moreover, the soaring food prices are deemed to affect South Korea’s economy as well. As South Korea is the world's seventh-largest grain importer, the food crisis poses a serious threat to the country. In regard to such concern, Professor Lim believes that replacing Korea’s import lines with countries where stable trade can be ensured would be desirable in the short term, whereas expanding bases of Korea’s domestic production would be necessary for the long term. He adds that although Korea holds relatively narrow farmland, by developing and increasing productivity through innovations such as smart farming, Korea would be able to deviate from the effects of international political events and reap further benefits other than food security through agricultural and rural maintenance.

The battle between Russia and Ukraine has left a tremendous impact on food security at an international level. The question is no longer whether a food crisis will occur or not – rather, all that is the question of how great the impact of the food crisis will be. Depending on the extent of damage to the production and supply from Russia and Ukraine, the trend of price growth in the world food market is expected to be prolonged in the future. With the global community bearing the brunt of soaring food prices, nations must strike while the iron is hot in taking precautions and pacifying measures to confront the yet-to-approach battle of the international food crisis.