“We back and support the revolutions of our oppressed and repressed Muslim people.” This is a quote from Rajab 1432, a statement made by the al-Qaeda general command in June 2011, a radical Islamic group which the U.S. is aiming to destroy in Afghanistan. Since the September 11 attacks in New York, such terrorist organizations have become a target of the increasingly costly and never-ending “War on Terror.” Former United States (U.S.) President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. armed forces from Afghanistan by striking a deal with the Taliban is, therefore, an important change in the status quo as it shows that the U.S. is now choosing to take a diplomatic approach to the issue.
As the organization thought to be behind the September 11 attacks on the U.S., al-Qaeda has been a target of the U.S.’s war on terror since the infamous event took place. The war on terror is a global campaign the U.S. has been carrying out against any country or organization it suspects to be conducting “terrorist activities” or supporting them. Afghanistan has long hosted the ultra-conservative and Islamist Taliban government that is suspected to be intertwined with al-Qaeda. Therefore, Afghanistan became a definite front in the U.S.’s war on terror.
Why the U.S. Wants to Withdraw
Despite the Taliban’s supposed close links with al-Qaeda, the Trump administration has pursued talks with the Taliban with hopes of achieving a full withdrawal of U.S. forces by 2021. As the U.S.’s intervention in Afghanistan has continued for approximately 20 years without accomplishing the U.S.’s initial goals, it seems natural that many of the nation’s citizens wish to see the U.S. and allied troops withdraw from Afghanistan. However, the decision to withdraw is still surprising as al-Qaeda has committed many atrocities against the U.S.
Among the many reasons behind why the U.S. may want to leave Afghanistan, one which is frequently discussed is the exorbitant cost both in personnel and money required to fight the war in Afghanistan. According to Professor Suwan Kim (Ingenium College of Convergence Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies), a conservative estimate of the cost to fight the war is 820 billion Dollars and 23,100 men in casualties from the U.S. army.
Another possible factor behind the withdrawal is that the majority of the U.S. public does not support the war in Afghanistan anymore. According to a 2019 opinion piece from the New York Times, 63 percent of the U.S. public was against the war in Afghanistan, alongside 69 percent of U.S. veterans. War-weariness and the increasing related costs are giving the public a negative outlook of the war, increasing public support for U.S.’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Biden apparently also added that the Afghan government has had more than enough time to build up a foundation for a functioning government – time which the Afghan government seems to have failed to use properly as they are only making elementary progress towards a functioning government. Implying the U.S. has done what it can for the region and it will now be pulling out. For one or all of these reasons, the Biden administration is now moving towards a full withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Anarchy or a New Hope?
A major concern surrounding this scheduled withdrawal is the possibility of a civil war in Afghanistan. According to the National Public Radio (NPR), a non-profit media organization based in the U.S., there are currently 14 recognized ethnic groups in Afghanistan – this has been the source of problems for the country, as opportunities from government posts to university seats are given to majority ethnic groups. Professor Kim is also worried about the possibility of separatist militia groups forming after the U.S. withdrawal which will further add to the chaos.
Each ethnicity acting on its self-interests could be detrimental to the country’s stability after the withdrawal. Major powers in the region, currently consisting of various ethnicities, may dissolve without the U.S. holding them together as a common enemy or ally. The former Mujahedeen, guerilla groups which fought the Soviet occupation faced the same fate after the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. If this happens, Afghanistan may face a civil war with each ethnicity fighting one another, which is how Yugoslavia fell just decades ago.
Besides potential conflict between ethnicities, another crucial issue is that peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government will need agreements on post-war issues such as which form of government post-war Afghanistan will take, how much civil liberties will be given to Afghan citizens, and so on. These are all items both sides have not been able to agree on so far. In the midst of such problems, September 11 has been set as the date for the U.S. withdrawal. It remains unclear whether peace can be achieved with the main combatants in Afghanistan failing to agree on any terms.
The Taliban has met both the U.S. and the Afghan government for peace talks several times but only the U.S. and Taliban have been able to agree on some terms. Nevertheless, these terms may not be heeded as many extremists within the Taliban will accept nothing short of their total seizure of power within Afghanistan. It is not known how extreme the ideology within the reclusive organization is but many interviews such as one from the *The Washington Post* with a few Taliban members in Afghanistan’s Marawara district have shown that many members of the Taliban dislike the idea of sharing power with the current Afghan government. The fact that the Afghan government’s authority loses power beyond Kabul, the country’s capital city, does not help either.
The U.S. is indeed not in the optimal circumstances to help defend Afghanistan indefinitely until the local government is ready to defeat the Taliban or nor is it required to do so. The Biden administration, however, must acknowledge that the withdrawal of troops could lead to consequences far more damaging to regional stability than is currently projected. Regardless of whether the Biden administration will uphold the September 11 withdrawal date, Afghanistan will continue to suffer from instability. However, the withdrawal from the region will still need to be closely followed since it may be considered a launchpad for future terrorist attacks.