The year 2020 has been strenuous for everyone around the world due to coronavirus (COVID-19). However, another event that could impact the world negatively has recently occurred. A war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan, one which also involved several other countries, including Iran and Turkey. International society initially urged the two countries to stop the war and make peace, but the war escalated despite previous peace treaties and ending up violating the Geneva Convention and other international laws that protect the right of soldiers and civilians. The war ended, with Azerbaijan the victor, but the possibility of another war erupting in the near future remains.

On September 27 of this year, a civilian woman, and a child in the town of Artsakh, Armenia, were killed in an attack by Azerbaijan. In retaliation, the Armenian government announced that they had shot down two Azerbaijani military helicopters and three drones and had destroyed three tanks. This caused Azerbaijan to declare war against Armenia, with both civilians and soldiers becoming targets of attack.

The conflict has centered around the Artsakh province, which was originally the territory of Azerbaijan. In 1989, however, the Armenian government decided to take control of Artsakh because most of the people living in the province were Armenians. In seizing authority over Artsakh, 350,000 Azerbaijanis were banished from the region, aggravating the political and military tensions between the two countries. Consequently, war erupted in 1992, right after the two countries achieved independence from the Soviet Union, causing Azerbaijan to lose a significant amount of land.

A Powder Keg of Nationalism

Considering the fact that Armenia is a Christian country and Azerbaijan is a Muslim country, the conflict between the two countries appears to be fueled by religious differences. The suppression of Christians by Muslims had been severe within Azerbaijan, which motivated Armenia to take over Artsakh. In the war of 1992, Azerbaijan lost much of its territory; in order to recover their land, they then engaged in consistent skirmishes. The Huffington Post, an American news outlet, referred to the region as “a powder keg” due to the continuing conflict. In fact, many other countries, such as Russia and Turkey, had expected a full-scale war to break out again.

However, religious conflict was not the leading cause of this year’s war. In fact, the main reason for the 2020 Artsakh war was the nationalistic movements in the two countries. After the war in 1992, Azerbaijan’s remaining territory was divided into two disconnected areas, one of which was totally surrounded by Armenia, hindering economic and social exchange with the other, larger Azerbaijan region. Insisting on territorial integrity, the Azerbaijani government demanded that Armenia return the land that they had conquered in the 1992 war. On the other hand, Armenia had no choice but to confront Azerbaijan because 70 percent of the residents of Artsakh are Armenians. Armenia argued that they had to protect their citizens living in Artsakh, and this provided a reason for Armenia to enter the war.

Since 1992, the Armenian government had consistently argued that its occupation of Artsakh is legitimate, but no other countries have supported this claim. According to Professor Oh Chong Jin (Department of Turkish-Azerbaijani Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies), it was difficult for Azerbaijan to reclaim Artsakh due to the presence of the Russian military in Armenia. However, in 2020, Russia implicitly allowed Azerbaijan to attack Armenia by announcing that they would not intervene with the nationalistic movement occurring in the Caucasus area. This announcement could have been interpreted as a strong motivation for Azerbaijan to declare war on Armenia to recover Artsakh.

A Time to Move Forward Despite Remaining Threats

On November 10, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed an end-of-war declaration. According to Hankyoreh, a South Korean newspaper, most of the experts concluded that the war in 2020 ended with complete victory for Azerbaijan. Armenia agreed to evacuate their military from Artsakh and hand over 30 percent of the province to Azerbaijan. In addition, Armenia agreed to allow Azerbaijanis to pass through their territory with their permission when traveling between the divided regions.

From the perspective of Armenia, the best way to avoid further military action is to minimize the conflict with Azerbaijan. Professor Oh explained that the opposition political party in Armenian has consistently argued that a friendly relationship with Azerbaijan would be the best solution for Armenia both socially and economically. He pointed out that Azerbaijan is now developing from an ethnic state into a nation state, which means that it considers civilians to be more important than ethnic groups. This policy of the Azerbaijani government has allowed other ethnic groups to be welcomed into the country, providing an opportunity for the Armenian government to improve the relationship.

From an economic perspective, it is crucial for Armenia to work together with the economy of Azerbaijan because Azerbaijan possesses significant natural gas and oil reserves. Currently, Azerbaijan transports these fossil fuels to the Black Sea by traversing Iran and Turkey. However, if Armenia and Azerbaijan collaborate economically, Azerbaijan can transport their fuels to the ocean by passing through Armenia only, which is beneficial for both countries.

Although the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has had a long history, perhaps the recent declaration of the end of the war could provide the momentum for cooperation between the two countries and perhaps the chance to achieve social, political, and economic stability. Now is the time to seek permanent peace between the two countries and plan to move forward.