Nord Stream 2 is a new export gas pipeline running from Ust-Luga in Russia to Greifswald in Germany. According to Gazprom, the largest natural gas company in the world, the export capacity of the two lines of Nord Stream is 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The Nord Stream pipelines are built in the Baltic Sea, which sets a significant difference from the traditional overland gas routes that used to flow into Europe.

Nord Stream 2 has been gathering much attention not only due to its massive scale but also its links to Russia. The United States (U.S.) has been consistently warning European nations, especially Germany, that the construction will only increase the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s influence on Europe. Former U.S. Secretary of Energy, Rick Perry, even stated that this would “deliver a stunning blow to Europe’s energy diversity and security.”

More significantly, the controversial project has an estimated cost of 11 billion Euros and is set to double Russia’s gas export to Europe. There are plans to have follow-up projects which will provide more gas for nations such as Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Italy. However, many European Union (EU) member states have raised concerns that Europe’s energy sector is too reliant on Russia. Another concern is that Russia is now supplying oil directly to Western Europe — previously, it passed through countries such as Belarus and Ukraine. This shift in oil supply may weaken the abilities of Eastern European nations to resist Russian aggression.

On August 20, after Alexei Navalny, the main Russian opposition leader, was poisoned in Russia, Germany displayed disappointment in Russia. As a consequence, many leading German politicians called for a halt to the construction of Nord Stream despite Germany’s need for gas and it being one of the largest projects the German Prime Minister is trying to complete. In fact, if the project is canceled, it will become one of the largest U-turns in Angela Merkel’s political career. In addition, Russia, too, has much to lose as it is currently the largest exporter of gas to Germany.

Why is Germany Supporting Nord Stream 2?

Germany is supporting Nord Stream 2 for two major reasons: its demand for natural gas and the cost of canceling the project. Compared to its rising demand for natural gas, the EU has had a decreasing supply of domestic natural gas, and thus Germany was forced to look for other sources such as Russia and the U.S. In this case, Russian gas has been more attractive due to its proximity to Germany in comparison with other sources.

Another concern for Germany regarding the possible halt of this project would be that the German government may receive lawsuits from firms and individuals involved in the project. As the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel claimed that this was a “purely commercial” project, and if it halts the project over political disputes, it may well result in the German government compensating for the loss to these parties.

The Reaction of the International Society

Prior to this dispute, Germany has selectively cooperated with Russia, at times condemning it for human rights violations and at times attempting economic cooperation with projects like the Nord Stream. However, international condemnation followed after Russia’s attempted assassination of Navalny, and the international community, including the U.S., are now pressuring Germany to halt the project and stand firm against Moscow.

Ever since, there has been a significant amount of diplomatic pressure on Germany to halt the project. According to Deutsche Welle (DW), a German public international broadcaster, as the Nord Stream 2 is a large business venture of which more than 90 percent is already completed, the costs of cessation would also be immense. Despite the expected financial loss, the reason this extreme measure is being considered is because it is without a doubt “the harshest consequence possible against Russia,” according to Sarah Pagung, a German-Russian relations specialist for the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Germany is considering such a measure mainly because Russia is suffering from economic turmoil. The recession in Russia, which started after the Western sanctions in 2014, has further worsened after the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic started. This is why a halt to this project is considered to be detrimental to Russia’s seemingly weakening economy. President Putin needs popular support to stay in power, and delivering another blow to the Russian economy is the last thing the president will want.

Throwing Straws Against the Wind

In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula and created two new federal subjects. Many nations imposed sanctions on Russian banks, arms, and, most importantly, oil. However, Russia has continued its aggressive foreign policy, even supporting rebels in Eastern Ukraine. The Western sanctions since then have done little to discourage further Russian actions. Likewise, although canceling the Nord Stream 2 project midway could result in losses for the Russian Federation, it may be more damaging to the EU. This is because Germany is not the only European country relying on imported Russian gas. Other nations, such as France and Italy, are currently relying heavily on imported Russian gas. In addition, according to DW, once Nord Stream 2 is completed, it is expected that gas prices will fall by approximately 5 percent in Germany. Therefore, there is no reason to give the project up after so much of the cost of building the pipeline has been paid.

The main objective of halting the construction of the Nord Stream 2 is to disadvantage Russia for its actions. However, sanctions against Russia since 2014 have not accomplished their intended goals of deterring Russian aggression, and there is no guarantee that the pipeline will be any different. This is why it may be wise to finish the construction of Nord Stream 2, even if it might mean that Russia will continue to display an aggressive attitude.

The future of Nord Stream 2, as of this moment, remains unclear. The costly project may be halted completely, or Germany may decide that it is in their interest to finish the project. Whatever happens, Germany will still require gas, and it may be wise for leading German politicians to reconsider their proposed cessation of the project as it may be more damaging for the EU as a whole.