The recent allegations of the former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s
declining health were met with confirmation on August 28, 2020, when he publicly
resigned from his position due to the worsening condition of his ulcerative
colitis, the inflammatory bowel he has had since his early years. The problem
posed by his less than stellar health had once led him to resign his position back
in 2007. Due to this new resignation being a repeated case, it remains a question
whether the tumultuous political state in Japan will shift dramatically or remain
the same.

Former Prime Minister Abe’s resignation comes at a difficult time in Japanese society —
with the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic causing significant damage to the
economic and social infrastructures, this change in leadership could lead to worse
problems stated prior, due to the currently hastily controlled pandemic in the short run.
In the long run, the new position and the unstable hold of the Liberal Democratic Party
can lead to a failure for more significant government-led initiatives such as Abenomics,
a government-run program to increase Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Resignation Results: An Accountability Failure

The Japanese former Prime Minister Abe officially stated that his chronic health
condition is the main and only reason for his resignation, but it is clear that there was
little to be gained from staying in his role —especially given the significant decrease in
supporters after his party’s efforts in containing the virus. He has been considered
making more of an impact by abdicating and sending Japan into leaderless political
turbulence, adding to the chaos when no successor followed suit. Abe had left the
Japanese politics at a standstill, and all efforts were made to find a replacement for the
remainder of his term.

Abe had served as the Prime Minister of Japan for seven years and eight months in
total and is historically the longest-serving leader of the country. Despite what his long
record may suggest, his current leave from his long-standing position is far from
graceful — the public has become aware of abuses of power, scandals of favoritism,
rule-bending, and tax misuse, all having soured the opinion of Abe. The opposing party
and the Japanese public had continued demanding answers from the current
government and Abe himself, but his recent resignation posed a challenge to those
seeking clarification for these aforementioned actions.

The Future is Steeped in Difficulty

Abe’s leave left many scandals and abuses of power left unanswered, raising concerns
that the person who will succeed the Prime Minister for the remainder of his term will
have to face the consequences for his actions. His party will take significant blame as
well, though many scandals had them as beneficiaries. This would make reelection of
their party difficult, and perhaps give the opposing party a majority after seven long
years. For now, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan is politically secure until the
autumn of 2021, having the majority vote in both houses of Parliament.
However, there is no guarantee that they will have overwhelming political power after
Abe’s term in office. With falling approval ratings and criticisms against the Liberal
Democrat-controlled government, hope for votes in the next election will rely on the
performance of the next Prime Minister candidate. Therefore, it stood that choosing a
competent and well-liked successor should be the party’s main priority.
Many willing candidates were ready to fill the role, ranging from Environment Minister
Shinjiro Koizumi, who is popular with the youth, former Defense Chief Ishiba, who
enjoys a broad appeal with the Japanese public, and current Defense Chief Kono, who
has a stellar record despite being considerably young. One of the most likely candidates
to step up to the role was Mr. Ishiba, who has seniority over the other candidates and
has similar opinions to that of Prime Minister Abe. However, the successful candidate
who was elected on September 14 was Yoshihide Suga. As the previous chief cabinet
secretary for Former Prime Minister Abe, he has since replaced him and taken the role
of the Prime Minister.

Turbulence between South Korea and Japan

As for foreign relations, Abe’s unpopularity with the South Korean public spells out the
possibility of better connections after his resignation. However, according to Researcher
Ryu Sang Yun of LG Economic Research Institute, the recent replacement, Prime
Minister Yoshihide Suga, is a well-supported man with over 70 percent of the Japanese
population rooting for him. In fact, due to the pandemic, any changes in foreign relations
have little chance to be addressed at this time. Furthermore, it is too early to determine
the current political state with such a rapid and significant change in leadership. In the
short term, it is not wise to expect any significant changes to take place on a global
scale.

Unless there is a unanimous decision to regain a positive influence on Japan’s side of
the negotiations, there will be little progress made to better relations. According to
Researcher Ryu, however, it may be the case that Abe’s seven-year-long position and
campaign involving anti-Korean sentiment within Japan may have already caused long
term damage, and the public will be unwilling to vote the opposing party into office.
Overall, Japan’s former Prime Minister Abe’s resignation has made ripples, not just in
Japanese domestic politics but on the international stage. The implications of his
decision, as well as the possibilities that open in the wake of Japan’s near decade long
Liberal Democratic majority, give allowance for massive turbulence and policy changes.
As for whether they will affect South Korea remains to be seen, but if the opposing party
wins majority votes, there may be a change of attitudes that can open the possibility of
positive interaction between these two countries. For now, the future spells difficulty for
the domestic political stage in Japan, having to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic and
its future repercussions on Japanese society.