To say that the Syrian Civil War is one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes to be witnessed in the 21st century is not an understatement. In the past decade, the Syrian civil war has given rise to millions of refugees and countless casualties. The most recent ceasefire deal in Idlib between Russia and Turkey seems to have brought a momentary peace in Syria’s last opposition enclave. However, whether it will bring about lasting peace remains to be seen.
On March 6, Turkey and Russia announced a ceasefire in the Syrian region of Idlib, the opposition fighters’ last enclave in Syria. The announcement was preceded by a nearly six-hour-long peace talk between the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladmir Putin in Moscow. This is the fourth ceasefire to take place since 2018 between the two countries. However, accusations of ceasefire violations and previous unsuccessful ceasefire cases make it unclear as to whether the somewhat peaceful conditions will hold.
The ceasefire deal will largely halt the warfare in Idlib—the biggest cause of conflict between Turkey and Russia in recent years. The terms of the deal include establishing a security corridor six kilometers to the north and south of the M4 highway, a key east-west roadway that effectively reconnects the major cities under the Syrian regime’s control. There have been numerous attempts from the Syrian government and rebel forces alike at taking over the areas surrounding the M4. Turkey and Russia also agreed to conduct joint patrols in this area, starting from March 15.
A Nine-Year Long Catastrophe
The Syrian Civil War, which began almost nine years ago, was triggered by a string of pro-democracy demonstrations that erupted in March, 2011, inspired by the "Arab Spring" in neighboring Middle Eastern countries. The Syrian government’s use of force to crack down on the demonstrations soon led to mass protests demanding the Syrian president Bashar Hafez al-Assad’s resignation, with said protests soon turning violent. The ensuing bloodshed eventually escalated into a full-scale civil war that has killed more than 370,000 people and produced millions of refugees. The Syrian Civil War has more often than not turned into a proxy war between the world’s superpowers, with Russia supporting the government forces and Turkey backing the rebel forces.
Russia and Turkey had reached a ceasefire deal in September, 2018, but the government forces resumed their attack when Al Qaeda began rising as a major force in opposition, all in the name of dislodging a terrorist organization. Since late 2019, the government forces have engaged in direct combat with Turkish armed forces in the process of driving back the rebel forces. The death of a Turkish soldier during this combat prompted the Turkish forces to launch a counterattack, Operation Spring Shield, on February 27. However, the operation ended on March 6 with yet another ceasefire deal in Idlib announced by the two countries.
Tug of War Surrounding Idlib
Assad’s attempt at reclaiming the province of Idlib began last spring. The violence in Idlib has been dramatically escalating since, displacing more than one million civilians. This ceasefire deal, however, gives rise to hopes that the recently intensified conflict in Idlib will begin to subside. “We do not always agree in matters regarding the situation in Syria,” said President Putin in his comments regarding the ceasefire. “However, in times of crisis, we have always succeeded at reaching common ground thanks to the high quality of the relationship between the two countries,” he added.
Nevertheless, while the deal is a win for the Syrian government forces and Russia, it is a rather significant loss for the rebel forces and Turkey. The ceasefire agreement essentially forces Turkey to acknowledge Assad’s territorial gain in Idlib, including the strategic M4 highway. Idlib being the last opposition-held province in Syria, Assad’s territory gain is all the more unfavorable to rebel forces. After the ceasefire deal was reached, President Erdogan implied his discontent in what seemed like a warning. He said, “Turkey retains the right to respond to the Syrian government forces’ actions with its own power.”
President Erdogan’s apparent warning is not the only thing that casts a shadow on this new ceasefire deal; the deal has already been questioned to have ulterior motives, much like most of the previous ceasefire deals. Several Turkish media outlets even claimed that the Syrian government forces had violated the terms of the agreement merely 30 minutes into the ceasefire. According to Al-Masdar News, on March 19, Turkish authorities announced that two Turkish soldiers had been killed in the city of Idlib, without providing details of the circumstances of their deaths.
The New Gaza Strip?
Currently, the biggest issue surrounding the future of the ceasefire deal is the fate of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist extremist group dominating nearly all of the region in Idlib. Although HTS has long since branched off from Al-Qaeda, both the United Nations and the United States have classified HTS a terrorist organization. Both Russia and the Syrian government forces have been pressing on the need for firm military action to dismantle HTS. Turkey, on the other hand, has displayed a more passive attitude towards dismantling the terrorist organization as the process may result in civilian casualties, which Idlib has seen enough of.
Meanwhile, a new scenario regarding the situation in Idlib suggests that it may become the new Gaza Strip. According to the Financial Times, Mevlut Cavusoglu, Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, pointed out on March 22 that Idlib was becoming the “new Gaza.” Currently, nearly two million civilians are stranded in a 1000-square-kilometer strip of land which is under the control of the terrorist group HTS. To those who are familiar with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the situation in Idlib seems hauntingly reminiscent to that of Gaza, which is also under the thumb of the fundamentalist militant organization, Hamas.
Too much blood has been spilled in the nine-year long Syrian Civil War. Although the new ceasefire deal between Russia and Turkey gives some hope for peace, it is doubtful whether the shaky deal is enough to halt the violence and prevent the emergence of a second Gaza. However, after almost a decade of bloodshed, it seems time for countries to stop the battle of nerves and bring forth peace that will last.