“19 years, that’s a long time…I think there’s a good chance that we will have a deal,” said President Donald Trump of the United States (U.S.), indicating a noteworthy breakthrough in negotiations that the U.S. and the Taliban have been holding for a few months. The impact to follow is still veiled, but the world is paying attention to a new frontier in the long history of war between the U.S. and the Taliban. Will there be peace at the final destination of the long journey or will the peace go west?
On February 21, Mike Richard Pompeo, the U.S. Secretary of State officially stated that the U.S. and the Taliban have been holding talks to promote political stability in Afghanistan and reduce the number of the U.S. troops stationed in the region. The agreement began with negotiations between the U.S. and Taliban representatives in Qatar in 2018. According to the *New York Times* (NYT), at the annual Munich Security Conference, the U.S. and the Taliban had agreed on a draft peace treaty regarding a seven-day reduction in violence. It includes the U.S. withdrawing 5,400 troops from Afghanistan within 135 days and closing five military bases and at the same time, Taliban prohibiting armed syndicates. The decline of hostility is the first step to an Afghan peace agreement.
History of Conflict
Afghanistan had been occupied by the Soviet Union for 10 years since 1979. After several civil wars, the region has been ruled by the Taliban forces. As the center of the U.S. was subject to a fierce attack on September 11, 2001, the U.S. pegged Al Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden as the individual behind the scenes. Later as the Taliban refuse the U.S.’s demand to hand over Osama bin Laden, the U.S. attacked Afghanistan, removing the Taliban from government. Soon after, the Taliban attempted to rebuild their forces thereby currently occupying roughly half of the Afghanistan territory. Since then, the U.S. army has been stationed in Afghanistan for 18 years, fighting a long battle. As reported by *NYT*, in 2019, the average death rate of civilians was almost seven per day and the U.S. dropped more than 7,000 bombs and missiles along with the Taliban and armed groups carrying out more than 25,000 attacks.
Starting from the mid-2018, the U.S. and the Taliban attempted to reach an agreement by entering into a peace negotiation at Qatar. In September, 2019, the two sides closely approached to an agreement by preparing a draft for the peace negotiations that includes the withdrawal of some U.S. troops. Trump planned a meeting with the Taliban leaders in person, only to pronounce, shortly after, that Taliban agreement is “dead,” breaking the negotiations as the U.S. troops were killed in the bombing terror of the Taliban. The *Associated Press* (AP) has stated that on February 11, two U.S. soldiers were killed by an explosion of a U.S. vehicle on a road in southern Afghanistan’s Kandahar province, and later several more terrors followed. These series of terror attacks have been a negative factor in negotiation between the two sides, further unnerving regional situations.
What Does It Say and Why It is Worth Knowing
Agreement on a reduction of violence was the first step for a plan toward peace between the U.S. and the Taliban. The U.S. official has stated that the Taliban’s adherence to the reduction in violence for one week should be well maintained in order to get a formal peace pact signed. The violence reduction deal is highly specific. It mentions that the deal is applied to a wide range of agents such as Afghans, American-led coalition and contains contexts including roadside rocket attacks, roadside bombs and suicide bombs which have been frequent during the 18 years of war.
As the one week *reduction in violence* successfully passed, the U.S. and the Taliban signed a peace agreement in Doha, Qatar on February 29. The four-page agreement includes a 14-month timetable for the withdrawal of the U.S. and its allies’ military forces. The U.S. is about to reduce the number of its troops from 12,000 to 8,600 within 135 days. It also states that the Taliban will start preventing individual and groups including the Al-Qaeda from using Afghanistan territory to threaten the security of U.S. and its allies. In a word, Taliban vowed to cut off its alliance with Al-Qaeda. Besides, they also pledged to start intra-Afghan negotiations on March 10, in order to reach a consistent ceasefire between the Taliban and the Afghan government.
Professor Kim Hong-guk (International Politics, Daejin University) mentioned the significance of the peace agreement saying “There are unstable aspects of breaking the cease-fire agreement such as the Taliban attacks and U.S. air strikes, but it is significant in that it has ended a long war and begun to walk the path of peace.” Despite the dark history that U.S., the Taliban and Afghanistan have made until today, which implies that there are chances for the deal to break down.
Obstacles on the Way to Peace
Although the Taliban has played a significant role during a fight against the Islamic State (IS) in Afghanistan, it is hard to overlook the tie between Taliban and Al-Qaeda that had been maintaining. Moreover, some armed groups unrelated to both the Afghan government and the Taliban are not so welcoming of the peace treaty. The long conflict has made space for profitable routes to these groups, allowing them to grow narcotics trade, which might become difficult once there is peace. Therefore, the possibility of these groups’ violence for the sake of their financial profitability is predictable.
Professor Kim Hong-guk showed an analysis that the withdrawal of the U.S. army might cause public security of Afghanistan to become unstable, saying “Given that the Afghan government was excluded from the peace agreement, the Taliban and the Afghan government are likely to engage in fierce conflict, leading to confusion. The possibility of the U.S. military intervention cannot be ruled out if an agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government is not carried out properly.” Also adding the need of the U.S. military, which has long intervened in the war, to provide compensation and support for reconstruction along with international society’s responsibility to cooperate.
The historical first step toward the end of 18 years of war has been taken. However, given the fact that the peace treaty was a ‘half-way agreement’, there are concerns after the negotiations remain. Now that they have succeeded in taking the first step, they have to find a way to address international concerns. “For the South Korean government, that has been maintaining a close diplomatic, economic and cultural friendship with Afghanistan, it is an important international agenda to contribute to peace in Asia and the world,” said professor Kim Hong-guk, pointing out the importance of internationally establishing a peaceful society beyond Afghanistan to the world.
Kweon Seoyoung
kb071531@korea.ac.kr