If there is a boiling point in international politics, it seems that the relationship between the United States (U.S.) and Iran has reached it. The brewing animosity between the U.S. and Iran began in 2018 and culminated in a drone strike against Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani, resulting in his death. This incident made headlines with many media outlets, and the future of the currently turbulent relationship between the two countries has since become a contentious issue.

The Past, Present, and Future of the U.S. and Iran’s Relationship

On January 2, it was reported that Soleimani had been killed by a drone strike near Baghdad International Airport. The very next day, U.S. President Donald Trump took responsibility for it by announcing on Twitter that he had ordered the attack to “terminate a top Iranian commander.” Trump’s publicly declared reason was Soleimani’s numerous past attacks on the U.S. and the prevention of another “imminent” attack.

Although public opinion on the attack on Soleimani remains divided in the U.S., the official U.S. stance supports Trump, with the U.S. Department of Defense confirming in a separate statement that the attack served as deterrence. No specific threat, however, has been identified.

After Soleimani’s death, Iran drafted a letter to the United Nations (UN) stating, “The attack is state terrorism,” and aggressive threats were also made against the U.S. According to his website, the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced that he is seeking “harsh revenge” against the U.S. Trump did not shy away from the war of words either, responding to Iran’s threats by warning them that if they were to attack, Iran “WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD.”

Even though this specific drone strike was a surprise, hostility between Iran and the U.S. is nothing new. The relationship between the two countries first became strained when Trump backed out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a nuclear deal with Iran, in May, 2018. Since then, economic sanctions and military attacks have been exchanged by the two countries and its proxies. Finally, on December 31, 2019, Iran-based militia Kataib Hezbollah breached the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, to which Trump responded by attacking Soleimani.

After the drone strike, Iran officially retaliated for Soleimani’s death by launching ballistic missiles at two American military bases located in Iraq. Despite Trump’s initial response stating that “no Americans were harmed,” the U.S. Department of Defense recently admitted that 34 members of the U.S. army were diagnosed with traumatic brain injury (TBI). The same night, Iran fired two missiles at a passenger plane, resulting in a crash and 176 deaths. Although this incident turned out to be due to a mistaken decision by one of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, it raised concerns among citizens all around the world about the possibility of World War III.

Predictions about the long-term impacts of the U.S. and Iran’s tense relationship vary. So far, both Iran and the U.S. have indirectly agreed to cease military attacks. Trump once again emphasized the current “maximum pressure” policy against Iran in a statement on January 8. The policy intends to exert maximum pressure by placing economic sanctions on Iran and subsequently draining them of the money required to support their military activity. According to experts, this step is in accordance with the U.S.’s general foreign policy to retrench in military action since the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Iran is also likely to retaliate with cyber-attacks because of their deniability and the inability to prevent them in advance. Iran's cyber-attack ability has been proven in the past; in the 2010s, Iranian hackers working for companies in connection with the Iranian government hacked into major American establishments such as the Bank of America and infrastructure like dams.

How Korea is Impacted

The U.S.’s relationship with Iran may affect South Korea in the long run. The deployment of Korea’s Chunghae military unit to the Strait of Hormuz seems to be one of its impacts. According to Korean ministry officials, the units deployed for anti-piracy purposes will act independently to defend Korean vessels and citizens.

Professor Chung Kuyoun (Department of Political Science, Kangwon National University) explained that the Strait of Hormuz is a passage through which 70 percent of all oil to East Asia is transported, so it is in Korea’s economic interests to stabilize its maritime safety. The way in which the decision was announced, however, may be problematic. Professor Chung stated: “It is notable that Korea has left room for possible cooperation with the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC), an international coalition led by the U.S. Currently, the United Kingdom (UK) is the only country working with the IMSC. Additionally, this announcement cited the safety of Korean citizens and vessels as a goal, indirectly attributing the Strait’s maritime dangers to Iran’s military actions.” It seems hard to deny that this military decision was made after the U.S. publicly encouraged its allies to help protect oil resources in the Middle East, given its manner and timing.

The relationship between South Korea, North Korea, and the U.S. is also under pressure. The potential for U.S. military action was demonstrated by the assassination of Soleimani.

In turn, this may convince North Korea to retain its nuclear weapons, consequently delaying the denuclearization of North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jung-eun’s ominous promise to soon reveal “a new strategic weapon,” made during a speech on January 1, was interpreted as a stronger stance against the U.S. Whether Soleimani’s death directly prompted the speech is uncertain. As such, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran can be viewed through the lens of the three-party relationship between South Korea, North Korea, and the U.S.

In such perilous circumstances, every political step that Iran or the U.S. takes will have to be cautiously planned. No matter what moves each party makes, the South Korean government will have to be even more careful and diplomatic to ensure the security of its own citizens. Balance and communication will be key for all parties involved as the impact of Soleimani’s death reverberates through the sensitive political climate in the months ahead.