On March 12, North Korea announced rescinding of its truce agreement. Soon enough in April, the North rejected the South’s attempt to dialog. A series of recent threats have tremendously increased the level of tension between the two Koreas, which has made citizens of the South worried about breaking out of another war. Is this what North Korea truly aiming at? The current situation on the Korean peninsula has created high level of anxiety even on the globe.

What the North Looks

Four years ago, in 2009, North Korea changed its constitution. It is the ninth revision since the enacting of populism constitution in 1948, and at the same time the third reform from the socialism constitution of 1972. One interesting point is that articles about communism in the constitution were actually deleted. Experts guess that it is probably because the North is too poor to achieve communism, and the country may be trying to resolve its problems by focusing more on its economic development.

One of the main points of the revision is the North’s transformation into a much stricter form of a garrison state where soldiers’ social status is highly increased. North Korea has also put more importance on National Defense Committee, which empowers the leader of the country. The most critical thing is, however, that North Korea tries to legitimize its use of nuclear weapons, and strengthen its bargaining position in case where other nations and international organizations such as the United States (U.S.) and the United Nations (UN) would stop economic and humanitarian aid.

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In 1994, when the first leader Kim Il Sung died, his son Kim Jung Il cemented his power through the Geneva Agreed Framework which dealt with annual economic and food aid from the U.S. Nuclear weapons were the core of the conflictat that time as well. The third successor Kim Jung Eun may be looking for a similar result from the current political disturbance.

Another hypothesis about the recent military provocations is related to his age. Kim was inaugurated as the first secretary of North Korea in March 2012 when he was just 28 years old. At that time, the executives of the North’s ruling committee looked down upon this inexperienced and young leader. However, Kim purged several generals who objected to him, which must have aroused hostility from other generals too. Kim, therefore, could not receive wholehearted support from the North Korean military authorities. This situation might have led Kim to provoke South Korea to demonstrate his bravery, daring, and belligerence.

The last plausible analysis is that the military authorities of North Korea wants to flaunt their power to the world. The strong cohesion between Kim and the armed circles could be considered as a highly dangerous element that creates the danger of war. The Director of National Intelligence (DNI), which is one of the official institutions in the U.S., also expressed worries about this cohesion. The DNI said it is highly possible that North Korea would launch several attacks.

Between the North and the South

North Korea has blocked entry to the Gae Sung Industrial Complex and cut communication. The North also placed its troops on a war footing against South Korea’s Key Resolve Training. The country had huge military drill with hovercraft though critics say that it is just no more than a political show. There used to be heated discussion about the North’s hacking South Korea’s financial and journalism institutions’ computer networks. Plenty of ungrounded rumors, such as hundreds of North Korean hackers were going around in the South, fostering a combative atmosphere.

The provocations have not stopped. It has become normal to hear heavy news from the North every morning. Some experts say that the North is using “headline dominance”, which make strong military actions or statement to dominate the South’s newspapers’ headlines. With this strategy, the North fosters war-like atmosphere day by day, causing confusing other nations about its true purposes.

Many experts believe that there was high possibility of the North’s missile launch. Tension between the two Koreas reached its peak. The missiles’ fuel tanks were filled and several missile launchers were moved into position. In response, the Blue House declared that the South had raised its security level and prepared every possible cases.

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What Experts Say

At this crucial moment, South Korean President Park Geun Hye suggested repairing relationship between the North and South. The president’s ultimate goal is to build a peaceful foundation for unification. In order to achieve her goal, President Park indicated that public consensus is required. She especially emphasizes consistency in carrying out foreign policies. “We should approach the North issue with the international community,” she said.

The Ministry of Unification (MU) regards the security of the workers at Gae Sung Industry Complex a significant issue. What the ministry considers as a crucial point is to build trust with each other. It wants South Korea to remain calm. “Especially, to get economic benefit, ameliorating problems such as North’s nuclear weapons, inter-Korean relations, and human right is urgent,” the MU said.

Hwang Ho Tack, a professor at Yonsei University Graduate of Journalism and Mass Communication and editor-in-chief of Dong-a Ilbo, once stated that breaking down the North’s government is the best way of eliminating the nuclear threat. “North Korea itself does not have much to lose whereas Kim Jung Eun party has plenty to lose,” he said. The gist here is that to break Kim down, we should push him into a corner, forcing him to give up North Korea's nuclear weapons.

Two professors from the Department of North Korea in Korea University (KU) both presume that the North will provoke with continuing its provocations until after the Korea-U.S. joint training, but arguably the war will not occur.

Professor Hong Kwan Hee, who teaches North Korea military security, politics, and unification, emphasized the importance of observing to Kim's personality and behavior. He said that Kim is a young and bellicose leader. "However war does not occur just out of rational calculation among people," Professor Hong said. "It would be national suicide for the North to start a war, for it will cause revenge of a grand scale by the Korea-U.S. army. Knowing this fact well, North Korea will not start a war."

What the professor worries about is that a large scale military conflict may be resulted from accidental incident between the Koreas or by the North's young leader's irrational misperception. Professor Hong said the recent successive provocations are not for negotiating cards to receive material aid. Kim knows the South well. Professor Hong asserts that the North will use the nukes to separate South Korea from U.S.

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Professor Hong also spoke about what keeps the North stable, even after expensive nuclear experiments and the luxury spending culture of its elite class. "The answer is the Sole System. The North is called a puzzle country or enigma in international society. This is because North Korea indoctrinates its subjects Juche, the self-reliance ideology, to make people complete obedient," Professor Hong explains. However after Social Network Services (SNS) were partly introduced to the North, the ideology may face a crisis.

Professor Hong thinks that the South government should inform people of the situation including the North's anti-south purpose and cultivate general sense of national security. Critically analyzing the North's provocations, intensifying Korea-U.S. alliance, and maintaining a deterrent force against the North are also necessary. He considers China as the most powerful influence on North Korea and most able to put down the North's actions. "Direct, trustworthy conversation between the North and South will be allowable after the North changes and the genuine intention of it becomes certain,"said Professor Hong.

Professor Lim Jae Cheon, who teaches North Korea's leader, elite class, and institution changes, analyzed that the Kim's group has been stable since the death of Kim Jung Il. Nevertheless, although there is no revolutionary movement, if the North keeps focusing on the military, complaints from subjects could grow bigger as time goes by.

Some worry about the South's attitude of preparing for a war saying that it is similar to what happened in 1950s, which Lim does not agree with. "It is totally different from 1950s. Though we are inferior in conventional weapons, we are far superior to the North in high-tech weapons, and the sustainability of army. It is even said that quite a lot of north soldiers are suffering from malnutrition due to committee's poor food management," is what Professor Lim said.

He agrees the dominant opinion in the South that the North's provocation has become more dangerous than that of previous periods. Now that the North has nuclear weapons, the country has more confidence in its military power. Furthermore, to consolidate Kim's power, the provocations will be more theatening.

Professor Lim insists both the North and the South avoid miscalculation. Reciprocal efforts, such as sending cues that contains positive content to each other, will greatly help repair south-north relationship. Professor Lim suggests "patience" in facing North Korea.

Excluding the possibility of war is impossible. The threats that are made these days can be part of the numerous attempts of Kim to domonstrate his and North Korea’s power. It is said that new cold war is happening in East Asia. At this crucial moment, South Korea should remain on high alert. Each step that the two Koreas take will determine the world’s as well as East Asia's destination.

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