“We will not tolerate any more military threat from Syrians,” said the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a press conference following the shooting down of a Turkish jet fighter by Syrian government forces. Following the incident, many third parties, most importantly the United States of America (the U.S.) and Russia, have either sided with Turkey or Syria, for they too have very much at stake in the Middle East. Whether the incident will lead to the breakout of a third world war still remains unknown.

The relationship between Turkey and Syria has not been always pleasant, for the two nations have perpetually been involved in territorial disputes that have been only recently settled, during the 1990s. On top of that, being only a kilometer away from the continent of Europe, separated by the Bosporus Strait, Turkey has often sided with the West, even trying to become a member of the European Union (EU), though it has proved unsuccessful. On the other hand, Syria has been under the regime of strict Muslim fundamentalists, who mainly stick to the belief that no good can be achieved by allying with the West. The two neighbors have kept a careful balance of power, when only recently a patrolling Turkish F-4 Phantom jet fighter was shot down in Syrian aerial domain (according to Syria) by Syrian government forces. The event made headlines around the world, hinting that the world is keeping a keen eye on the incident.

   
▲ Protesting Syrions Provided by Arab Spring

Adding Fuel to a Fire
It all began on June 22, 2012, when a Turkish F-4 Phantom jet fighter left its base in Malatya on its patrol mission around the Turkey-Syria border. Soon after its takeoff, it reached the border when it got shot down by hostile Syrian government forces. The bodies of two Turkish pilots were believed to be in the ocean, after their air force jet was downed in an act, escalateing tensions between the neighboring countries. According to Syrian officials, the F-4 Phantom jet fighter was shot down because it was flying over Syrian aerial domain. However, the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan argues that the approach was too hasty. He claims that the jet fighter had accidentally penetrated Syrian air but soon flew back to international airspace. Nonetheless, according to Erdogan, the Syrian forces brought it down anyhow. Later, the bodies of two missing pilots were recovered on July 4, 2012.

The incident is not to be neglected lightly. It has worsened the relationship between the two countries, which has already been stained in the recent past, owing to differing stances on the 16-month-old revolt against SyrianPresident Bashar al-Assad. Turkey directly took actions to condemn Syria. Erdogan highlights, “Turkish government will take all necessary and decisive actions towards the incident.” It is said that Syrian military officials apologized soon after the incident, but the Turkish government is not accepting the apology. Turkey joined other nations, namely the U.S., urging that the Syrian president must step down from his office.

Turkey-Syria Border, Powder Keg of the Middle East
It seems ironic that the Turkey-Syria conflict shockingly resembles that of the Balkan Peninsula in East Europe. Commonly referred to as the powder keg of Europe, the Balkan Peninsula saw the beginning of World War I in the 20th century when the Austrian prince was assassinated by Bosnian nationalist Gavrilo Princip, during his visit to Sarajevo, Bosnia. A few days after the assassination, Austria declared war on Bosnia, Russia on Austria, Germany on Russia, and France on Germany, leading to a chain reaction of war declarations. Similarly, the Turkey-Syria border has been as turbulent in the recent months following the Syrian provocation. Some experts have openly expressed concerns, even claiming that the area could be the next starting point of a world war.

Some may wonder how only a minor local scrimmage could lead to a possible world war. Yet, the issue seems in no way a simple one having only two players–Turkey and Syria. The incident, by a plethora of Middle East studies experts, is considered to be a power struggle of many nations, mainly Russia and the U.S. The two sides have allegedly announced to support the two sides, with Russia backing Syria and the U.S. shoring up Turkey. Since the two nations exercise enormous power around the world, including the Middle East, other nations are also making their stance in public declarations. It seems as if shooting down of the jet fighter is the 21st century version of the assassination of the Austrian prince.

   
▲ Bashar al-Assad (left), President of Syria and Vladmir Putin (right), President of Russia Provided by the Guardian

How Did It All Come to Be?
The recent aggravation of the Turkey-Syria relationship has a rather complex history. It dates back to March, 2011. The Syrian uprising started as a part of the Arab Spring, which later developed into a nationwide protest, and eventually to a civil war in 2012. The uprising’s main goal was to see the abdication of power of the Ba’ath Party, which has stayed in power for nearly five decades. Moreover, demonstrators urged for the resignation of President Bashsar al-Assad. Until then, the uprising seemed to be only limited to Syrian borders.

However, Turkey began taking actions concerning its neighboring state, leading to international intervention. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan openly condemned the Syrian president, going as far as providing shelter for Syrian refugees. Turkey also hosted the meeting of Free Syria Army (FSA) officials in Istanbul, providing them with arms and training. Yet, what angered Turkey was the aforementioned shooting down of its F-4 jet fighter. After the incident, Erdogan vowed retaliation saying, “The rules of engagement of the Turkish Armed Forces have changed. Turkey will openly support Syrian people in every way until they get rid of the bloody dictator and his gang.” Erdogan also urged for the meeting of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Following Erdogan’s press conference, other nations began taking actions as well. The Arab League (AL), EU, and the U.S. have condemned the Syrian government’s use of violence against unarmed protestors, cutting off all their ties with the Syrian government. The AL suspended Syria’s membership over the government’s violent suppression of demonstrations. Furthermore, the United Nations (UN) has also expressed concern, attempting to put an end to the crisis by appointing former UN Secretary- General, Kofi Anan, as a special envoy.

Of all the nations and associations involved in the incident, it seems that the most enthusiastic supporter of Turkey and Syrian protesters is the U.S. The Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ahmet Davutoglu, in Istanbul, vowing to support Turkey and Syrian protestors in every way possible, such as providing military training and sharing intelligence. On top of that, Clinton did not rule out the possibility of declaring regions invaded by anti-government forces as no-fly zones, prohibiting any aircraft from flying in the area. Such methods helped NATO and AL forces in capturing Muammar Gaddhafi during Libyan invasion.

Incumbent Syrian President al-Assad has close friends, too. Along with Iran and China, Russia has implicitly and explicitly backed the Syrian government, crying out the illegality of foreign involvement in the issue. Ironically, Russia has perpetually been involved in arms trade with the Syrian government, aiding it from foreign trade sanctions. Russia has also thrown a dissenting vote against the UN Security Council’s Resolution towards international sanctions against Syria. What is more is that some military experts are suspecting Russia of sponsoring the shooting down of the Turkish jet fighter, though not yet been proven.

A Replay of the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan?
Many foreign affairs experts are overtly pointing out the incident’s similarity to the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, which took place from 1979 to 1989. The war took place during the Cold War era in which the Soviet Army and the Marxist-Leninist government of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA) fought against the Afghan Mujahideen guerilla group. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) launched the invasion mission in order to establish a Soviet-friendly communist government in the newly born nation. Yet, the USSR army was met with fierce resistance from guerilla groups, openly embraced by the U.S., Iran, Egypt, the United Kingdom (UK) and China. It is believed that the U.S. even provided the Mujahedeen with arms and military training to repel their enemy’s foreign influence.

Coincidentally, as with the recent Syrian provocation, the Soviet invasion involved two major foreign powers–the U.S. and Russia. The two powers saw the worst times of their relationship during the invasion, with the U.S. adopting various measures to condemn the USSR’s unlawful occupation of the DRA. As a result, the U.S. boycotted the 1980 Moscow Olympic Games, set trade sanctions against the USSR, and postponed the ratification of Strategic Arms Limitation Talk II (SALT II). The two events thus look very alike in that both countries are eager to achieve hegemony in the Middle East.

   
▲ Barak Obama (left), President of the U.S., and Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right), Prime Minister of Turkey.Provided by the Guardian

Future of the Syria-Turkey Case
Now that Turkey has called for a NATO meeting, nations including the U.S. and Russia have agreed to gather to discuss the issue. It seems highly likely that the U.S. is backing Turkey and arguing for a complete change of power in Syria, while Russia is reluctant to punish its long time friend al-Assad. To the U.S., extremely fundamentalist Muslim states have been an eyesore, and Syria has been its main target to exercise its power in the Middle East. It has long waited for the justification for an attack and Syria has given it by shooting down the Turkish jet fighter. In Nam Sik (Middle East Studies, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade) mentions, “As of now, an all-out military clash in the Middle East is not something unimaginable. The Middle East crisis is definitely worth paying careful heed to.”

The Korean government has lately expressed its condolences towards the Turkish pilots who were killed in the attack, and called for a hasty investigation of the issue. Nonetheless, it has not yet expressed any plan for military deployment or resources provision for either side. Since Korea and Syria have not yet established diplomatic relations, it is highly probable that Korea will soon be involved in the issue siding with Turkey and the U.S. No one can easily foretell the future of Syria and Turkey, for it is a greatly complicated incident pivoting around interests of diverse nations around the globe. Will it be a watershed for the next world war? Or will it be resolved peacefully? We have much to discover.

 

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