▲ Fewer newborns. Provided by koreajoonangdaily.joins.com.
When there is birth, there is death—it is inescapable. Human beings have tried their best to extend their lives and have managed to significantly elongate their life expectancy over the past few decades. Whether that is a fortune or a misfortune for humankind still remains unanswered, but longer life combined with a sharp decline in fertility rates is causing a bundle of problems, now and in the future. Korea has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world—where are we heading, and where should we head?
 
 
 
What and How Serious Are the Problems
Low birth rates and an aging population are serious problems in Korea. Due to the change in values in Korean society, the birth rate in Korea has been rapidly decreasing. In 2014, the total fertility rate (TFR) of Korean women stood at 1.25, the lowest level of all Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries. According to the OECD’s definition, TFR indicates the expected number of children an average woman will bear.
 
A decreasing TFR is not just a problem in Korea, but in many other countries around the world as well, especially in developed countries. Japan, with a TFR of 1.4, is one of the countries with a very lowest birth rate. Germany’s TFR, 1.35, is the lowest in Europe. The OECD states that assuming no net migration and an unchanged mortality rate, a TFR of 2.1 ensures broad population stability. However, the average TFR of the OECD was 1.70 in 2001, below the ideal level.
 
The two phenomena are linked in that a low birth rate results in an aging population. According to the United Nations (UN), any society whose proportion of the population aged 65 and over is greater than seven percent, 14 percent, or 20 percent can be classified respectively as an aging society, an aged society, and a super-aged society. However, an aging population does not only imply more older people, it reflects a society undergoing substantial change.
 
Japan became an aging society in 1970, Germany in 1932, and the United States (U.S.) in 1942. Korea became an aging society relatively recently, in 2000. According to a report from the UN, the speed of population aging in Korea is unprecedented among OECD countries.
 
The average age of Koreans is 35.1. If the current trend of lower births and aging population continues, it is expected to rise to 53.9 by 2050, making Korea likely to become one of the most aged societies in the world. In particular, as 7.13 million baby boomers born in the late 1950s and 1960s will enter their late 60s in around 2020, the speed of aging will be accelerated. Many reports show that the outlook for the world population is very bad.
 
 
 
   
▲ Graph that shows decrease in marriages from 2010 to 2014. Provided by koreajoongangdaily.joins.com.
Changes in Education
 Of course, there are positive sides to a population decline. Considering the limited land space, scarce resources, and high youth unemployment, a small population with a high quality workforce could create a higher standard of living. Nonetheless, in the long term, a radical reduction in population is expected to deal a fatal blow to contemporary Korea.
 
 
For one thing, the low birth rate directly influences the number of students. Korea will have no choice but to fundamentally change its educational environment, such as the number of schools. For example, the number of elementary and middle school students nationwide has fallen from 4.23 million in 2005 to 2.72 million in 2014, 1.51 million decreases in just nine years. Fewer students equals fewer schools equals fewer teachers and staff.
 
 
   
▲ Korea has the highest suicide rate among OECD countries. Provided by Economist.com
Changes in the Economy
A rapid decline in the birth rate and an acceleration of the population aging in a short period of time would decrease the future labor supply, weaken the nation’s investment, production and consumption. In the end, Korea will drift into recession or worse as a result of a fall in demand. Because manpower is important to Korea’s economy and development, economic growth would be reduced.
 
In an aging population, costs for the elderly such as for health and medical care will increase substantially. To pay those costs, taxes will have to be raised. This inevitably imposes a burden on coming generations. According to “The Challenge of Rapid Aging and Low Fertility in Korea” by Kim Sun Woong, such changes will result in inter-generational conflicts, and higher tax rates will diminish the incentive to work.
 
 
 
   
▲ Burden for the youths. Provided by usa.chinadaily.com.
Problems the Elderly Will Face
The elderly, too, will have to adapt to the aging of Korea. With a rising life expectancy combined with weakened support from sons and daughters, the elders will have difficulty maintaining their standard of living. Poor for retirement, all too common in Korea, and the lack of a strong social infrastructure to support them, will add to the problems of growing old.
 
In particular, since today’s society is changing at a fast pace, the gap between younger and older generations is getting bigger. Therefore, it is not easy for the elders to keep up with all the trends, and they feel separated from the community they live in. Currently, 49percent of Korea's elders live, and die, in poverty. Poverty, alienation, abandonment—is it any wonder Korea’s elderly suicide rate is the highest among OECD nations?
 
 
Reasons for This Situation
A major reason behind the decreasing birth rate and aging population is the dismantling of the traditional family structure. In modern times, the tendency to maintain the general institution of marriage and traditional form of family has been weakened. In Korea, extended family households have been decreasing and the number of single households has been increasing. Due to those changes, social expectations, recognitions of family roles, and member’s role within family also have changed markedly.
 
In addition to changes in the traditional family structure, more women are provided the chance of education and are entering the workforce. Many thus tend to pursue careers and self-development. However, the Korean social structure does not easily allow them to hold a job and run a household at the same time. There is a tendency that the higher a woman's possibility of getting a job outside the family, the lower the TFR. In the case of developing countries, statistics show, non-educated women have two more children than educated ones.
 
The increasing female workforce has led to a rapid increase in women’s age at marriage and at motherhood. According to Statistics Korea, the average age for a woman to get married was 29.8 in 2014, five years later than in 1990. Also, according to an OECD report, the average age for a woman to have her first child was about 30.3 years in 2011.
 
Professor Lim In Sook (Department of Sociology) said, “The main reason for low birth rate is late marriage. Delayed marriage leads naturally to delayed childbirth. Why are young people getting married later? There are other reasons as well, but the situation is primarily because the social and economic environment of marriage and nurturing have not been built.” She added that, the entry of women in public affairs has increased, but there still exists the social perception that women have much more parenting responsibilities than men. Here, dilemmas inevitably occur.
 
With respect to the economy, the high cost of child care and education are also important factors in a low birth rate and aging population. According to a survey by the Korea Institute of Policy Evaluations (KIPE), 70.6 percent of the respondents answered that Korea fails to offer an environment where people can bear and rear children. Furthermore, 60.2 percent blamed the financial hardships of raising children for low birth rate. To overcome some of these problems, there should be less opportunity cost for childbirth. Furthermore, child rearing should cost less, and social security should be provided.
 
In Korean society, however, a family inevitably undertakes the burden of childrearing and women shoulders almost all the responsibility for nurturing. Moreover, since modern society is moving toward a highly educated community, parents face higher expenses for their children’s private education. The burden felt by parents is worsening.
 
 
A low birth rate leads to an aging population because the whether a society is aging is determined by the relative ratio of aged population to the total population. Besides, the principal reason for the aging population is advances in medicine and increase in standards of living that lead to longevity. An aging population and low birth rate are becoming serious social assignments that the all society should solve together.
 
 
 
   
▲ Global Population Pyramid of 1970, 2015, 2060. Provided by buddinggeographers.wikispaces.com.
Past Efforts to Increase Fertility Rates
The Korean government has been making attempts to deal with the country’s decreasing fertility rate. In 2005, the Framework Act on Aging Society was enacted along with the establishment of the Presidential Committee on an Aging Society and Population Policy (PCASPP). The Framework Act on an Aging Society aims to secure national competitiveness, raise quality of life, and enable sustainable development by establishing guidelines to deal with the changes caused by low fertility rates and an aged society. With that as a basis, the first master plan to deal with low fertility rates and an aged society was presented in 2006, and a second master plan was written and delivered to related departments and the local government.
 
The plan was mainly composed of policies that provide financial support to reduce the burden of having children. It provided pregnant mothers with aid for hospital bills, financial support for raising children, measures to ensure work family compatibility, and support for multi-child families.
 
Infertile couples could receive financial support from the government when they chose to try invitro fertilization, pregnant mothers received 200,000 won from their health insurance for prenatal tests, and low income families who earned below 200 percent of the minimum cost of living were provided with nutritional aid. It also announced that it would provide free injections for mandatory vaccinations to children up to the age of twelve. The master plan also attempted to establish maternity and paternity leaves from work. The results have been disappointing, with the birth rate dropping to as low as 1.2. More remains to be done.
 
 
 
 
   
▲ Ansan-si facilitated group meetings for single men and women. Provided by mp-news.com.
Reorganization of the School System
Faced with the master plan's failure, the government has been seeking innovative methods to deal with the low fertility rate. One recent suggestion was to reorganize the school system. The Saenuri Party and the government have put forward a plan to reorganize the school system by reducing the time spent in school, changing the current k-12 education into k-10 education. Their rationale is that by entering the work force at an earlier age, young job seekers will be better able to find employment.
 
However, many are questioning the practicality of this policy, stating that it fails to confront the fundamental cause of youth unemployment and that leaving school a year or two earlier will not solve youth unemployment. “Reorganizing the school system from k-12 to k-10 does not address the issue at all,” said Professor Taeil Kim (KU Department of Public Administration). “It will just increase the number of younger job seekers, which will result in an increase in the youth unemployment rate.”
 
Specialists in education offer point out that the plan that does not fully consider the stages of development of young children. Furthermore, there are concerns that the reorganization may result in more private education, with its related costs for parents.
 
A similar policy. that makes students begin school earlier, was raised during the Roh Moo Hyun administration. That project met with resistance from academia and went nowhere. The Lee Myung Bak government then suggested the same plan but the public opinion opposing it was too strong to overcome. In response to opposition to the latest plan, the Ministry of Education announced that it will act with caution.
 
 
 
   
▲ A mother working with her baby in her arms. Provided by businessinsider.com.
Government Acts as a Matchmaker
City and local governments in Korea are organizing “governmentally facilitated meetings” to provide men and women with opportunities to meet a mate. The project aims to increase fertility rates by encouraging marriage. It is based on the logic that delayed marriages are one of the key causes of the low fertility rate.
 
However, the question remains whether such a project will encourage marriages and increase birthrates. It is the predominant view that the project overlooks the burdens men and women currently face—education, employment, and real estate--which stand as real barriers for marriage.
 
 
 
The Salary Peak System
The aging population has forced the government no choice but to extend the current retirement age of 55 to 65. The postponing of the retirement age, which is to be implemented starting in 2016, will likely result in more difficulties for youths in finding jobs as elderly stay longer in their jobs. The Salary Peak System is one policy suggested to deal with this problem. Under it, the salaries of people whose retirement age have been extended would be decreased year by year with the money saved to be used to hire more youths.
 
Advocates of this system believe in the need to find a compromise between the elderly and the young in order to solve youth unemployment. Advocates of the salary peak system claim that implementing the system with 20 elderly workers will mean jobs for 200 new hires.
 
On the other hand, opponents question the feasibility of the plan. Their major concern is that there is no institutional framework that would ensure that the money saved in by implementing the salary peak system would be used in to hire younger employees. “Without specific policies that ensure the money saved through the salary peak system is going to be used to increase youth employment, the policy does not stand,” said Professor Ham Ki Young (KU Department of Economics).
 
 
He has concerns about the system. “At first glimpse, the salary peak system seems to be capable of chasing two hares at once— postponing the retirement age and reducing youth unemployment. However, it is very likely that the system in question will burden a lot of the elders in their fifties. For approximately ten years, starting from age 55, is a period that requires a lot of spending for most Koreans— parents need to pay for their children’s college tuition and weddings, and they also need to prepare for their life after retirement. Considering that the number of those not entitled to the national pension is over 22 percent in Korea, I am concerned that the system may bring a decline in the quality of the elderly’s life after retirement.”
 
Others believe that the implementation of the salary peak system is inevitable, and yet may not be a practical resolution for youth unemployment. “As the retirement age gets delayed, it is inevitable for companies to reduce the salaries of older employees considering the restricted budget a company can spend on its employees. It is therefore important for labor and management to reach a compromise on which both sides can agree. However, it would be a logical leap to say the salary peak system is the resolution to youth unemployment. The salary system is to deal with the postponed retirement age, not youth unemployment,” commented Won Jun Yeon (Director of the management headquarters of ISU Chemical).
 
 
 
   
▲ A baby pointing up. Provided by blog.mothersafe.or.kr.
Cases Abroad
The U.S. has a birthrate of 2.0, while countries in Northern Europe including Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden have birthrates higher than 1.7. France, whose birthrate had been declining, now has a birthrate near 2.0. How did these nations, which once had declining fertility rate, succeed in bringing a change?
 
Sweden, which experienced a sharp decrease in its fertility rate in the 1970s, has implemented various policies to encourage child birth. Under the principles of gender equality that child birth and child care are something both parents must work at together, it has been providing lengthy maternity and paternity leaves. Furthermore, Sweden has offered a basic subsidy for children under 16 since 1946 to help parents raise their children. A family with one child receives monthly aid of approximately 150,000 won, and the amount of aid increases accordingly to the number of children.
 
France was the first nation to implement intensive policies to deal with declining fertility rates, policies which have been successful. The main feature of France’s family policy is that it seeks work-family compatibility. The French government provides allowances for families that have two or more children, regardless of their situation and income. There is also a subsidy for newborn babies until they reach the age of three a monthly subsidy of 160 euros per child and 340 euros for women who quit their jobs in order to raise their children. There is also easy access to free child care centers provided by local governments.
 
Another country known for its successful family policies is Australia. Unlike the family polices of France, Australia’s policies mainly target the underprivileged. The government and local communities share the view that it is important to support those who lack economic resources, and as a result their policies are focused on supporting the poor. They provide family, maternity and home care allowances, along with child-care services. Australia’s policies have been successful, and according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the Australia's birthrate has been on a steady rise.
 
 
 
Haste Makes Waste
What can Koreans learn from countries abroad? Are Koreans heading in the right direction? Professor Lim expressed her concerns about the political suggestions recently made in Korea. She said that many of the plans do not tackle the fundamental problems of youth unemployment. “The governmentally facilitated meetings, for instance, is an example that interprets wrongly the fundamental cause of low birthrates. It is not because men and women do not have the opportunity to meet. It is that they can't afford to date. It is more due to social structural issues that we must focus on,” said Lim.
 
Professor Kim took a step further and said that though there is no single resolution to the issue, there is a key on which politicians must focus that is often neglected. “The ultimate goal of the policies that attempt to resolve the issue of low fertility rate must be gender equality and work-family compatibility.” He expressed that the government's effort to provide financial aid and vitalize maternity leaves are just a small part of what needs to be done.
 
That there are continuous suggestions of policies that attempt to raise declining fertility rates of Korea is good news. However, with the continuously declining fertility rates, it is the society’s duty to review past policies and make sure recent suggestions are fully addressing the core of the issue. Haste makes waste. The society will have to measure the potential effectiveness of the policies thoroughly before making hasty decisions.
 

 

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